XRP Up or Down - November 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $46 held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$46.4

Combined PnL

$9.92

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$29.92

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$12.26

Up4 traders

Total Value$16.48

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$2.34

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 30.9¢	$14.79	$23.94	+$9.15	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 97¢	$6.86	$7.04	+$0.18	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$2.88	$5.99	+$3.11	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$8.47	$5.57	-$2.9	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.5	+$0.3	—
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 47¢	$1.29	$1.37	+$0.08	—

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$23.94

PnL

+$9.15

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$0.18

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$3.11

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$2.9

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.