Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Up
5
Up 60%
$30.51
-$1.78
Research grade
AvoidUp at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $20.14 | $14.03 | -$6.11 | — |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $8.44 | $7.94 | -$0.49 | — |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | — |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $2.5 | +$0.95 | — |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.06 | $1.03 | +$0.97 | — |
Invested
$20.14
Value
$14.03
PnL
-$6.11
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.44
Value
$7.94
PnL
-$0.49
Record
—
Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
—
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.55
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
—
Invested
$0.06
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.97
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.