Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Up
5
Up 80%
$63.75
-$9.12
Research grade
AvoidUp at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $39.12 | $32.1 | -$7.02 | — |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $16.2 | $16.62 | +$0.42 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $10 | -$6.8 | — |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $2.53 | +$2.37 | — |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $2.5 | +$1.9 | — |
Invested
$39.12
Value
$32.1
PnL
-$7.02
Record
—
Invested
$16.2
Value
$16.62
PnL
+$0.42
Record
—
Invested
$16.8
Value
$10
PnL
-$6.8
Record
—
Invested
$0.15
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$2.37
Record
—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.9
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.