XRP Up or Down - November 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $46 held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

Total Value

$45.59

Combined PnL

-$6.89

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$37.81

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$9.25

Down3 traders

Total Value$7.78

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$2.36

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82¢	$32.73	$21.36	-$6.61	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.95	+$0.05	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 71¢	$6.39	$4.5	-$1.89	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$2.63	$4.04	+$1.41	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$2.52	$3.5	+$0.98	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 70¢	$2.8	$2	-$0.8	—
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.28	$0.25	-$0.04	—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$32.73

Value

$21.36

PnL

-$6.61

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$6.39

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.63

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$1.41

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.52

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.98

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

PnL

-$0.8

Record

—

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.04

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.