Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $105 held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$105.23

Combined PnL

$22.46

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$72.52

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$6.2

Down4 traders

Total Value$32.72

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$16.26

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$50.98	$51.74	+$0.76	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$21.14	$20.78	+$5.43	—
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$10	$20	+$10	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$3.75	$7.5	+$3.75	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$2.5	$5	+$2.5	—
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 1.9¢	$0.21	$0.22	+$0.01	—

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$50.98

Value

$51.74

PnL

+$0.76

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$21.14

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$5.43

Record

—

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10

Value

$20

PnL

+$10

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.75

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$3.75

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.5

Value

PnL

+$2.5

Record

—

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.