XRP Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 100%
$93.64
$7.01
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $29.47 | $32.51 | +$7.75 | — |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $23.07 | $19.94 | -$3.13 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $11.8 | $14.16 | +$2.36 | — |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $15.97 | $13.58 | +$1.03 | — |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95.1¢ | $12.23 | $10.87 | -$1.36 | — |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $2.23 | $2.59 | +$0.36 | — |
Invested
$29.47
Value
$32.51
PnL
+$7.75
Record
—
Invested
$23.07
Value
$19.94
PnL
-$3.13
Record
—
Invested
$11.8
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$2.36
Record
—
Invested
$15.97
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$1.03
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.23
Value
$10.87
PnL
-$1.36
Record
—
Invested
$2.23
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.36
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.