Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 32 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Shawn Fain win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
32 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
32
Yes 100%
$1.1K
$-11.1K
0.5¢ → 0.1¢
-91% since entry · 27 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
32 of 32 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)32 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
32 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $4.2K | $320.7 | $-3.8K | — 0-2 (2) |
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR | Yes | $155.65 | $155.65 | $-1.1K | — 0-3 (3) |
PE petanimalCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $848.33 | $104.5 | -$743.83 | — 0-14 (14) |
SM smoltraderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $641.86 | $81.41 | -$560.45 | — 0-1 (1) |
J- J-E-RCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $815.09 | $56.42 | -$758.67 | — |
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $419.49 | $53.28 | -$366.21 | 0% 0-121 (121) |
JA JamesAltucherCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $614.04 | $51 | -$563.04 | — |
UP uprightuserCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $393.7 | $50 | -$343.7 | — |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $706.29 | $46.54 | -$659.75 | 0% 0-122 (122) |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $627.52 | $41.59 | -$585.93 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
BE Better-ManCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $275 | $34.92 | -$240.07 | — 0-5 (5) |
GL glhfggCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $389.48 | $31.97 | -$357.51 | — |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $311.54 | $30.1 | -$281.44 | 0% 0-141 (141) |
LO locuspmCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $227.98 | $27.5 | -$200.48 | 0% 0-24 (24) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $196.85 | $25 | -$171.85 | — |
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $89.24 | $7.38 | -$81.86 | 16% 9-47 (56) |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $94.82 | $6.13 | -$88.69 | — |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $49.7 | $5.67 | -$63.47 | — 0-8 (8) |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $70.07 | $5 | -$65.07 | 13% 5-33 (38) |
 Gucky-45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $18.99 | $2.4 | -$16.59 | — 0-7 (7) |
 HolyMoses7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $18.51 | $1.81 | -$16.7 | — 0-15 (15) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $25.78 | $1.7 | -$24.08 | 0% 0-112 (112) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.59 | $1.61 | -$23.51 | 33% 204-415 (619) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.11 | $1.11 | +$1.11 | — 1-0 (1) |
 QualitativeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $5.91 | $0.75 | -$5.16 | — |
Invested
$4,166.97
Value
$320.7
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$155.65
Value
$155.65
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$848.33
Value
$104.5
PnL
-$743.83
Record
—
0-14 (14)
Invested
$641.86
Value
$81.41
PnL
-$560.45
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$815.09
Value
$56.42
PnL
-$758.67
Record
—
Invested
$419.49
Value
$53.28
PnL
-$366.21
Record
0%
0-121 (121)
Invested
$614.04
Value
$51
PnL
-$563.04
Record
—
Invested
$393.7
Value
$50
PnL
-$343.7
Record
—
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$706.29
Value
$46.54
PnL
-$659.75
Record
0%
0-122 (122)
Invested
$627.52
Value
$41.59
PnL
-$585.93
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$275
Value
$34.92
PnL
-$240.07
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$389.48
Value
$31.97
PnL
-$357.51
Record
—
Invested
$311.54
Value
$30.1
PnL
-$281.44
Record
0%
0-141 (141)
Invested
$227.98
Value
$27.5
PnL
-$200.48
Record
0%
0-24 (24)
Invested
$196.85
Value
$25
PnL
-$171.85
Record
—
Invested
$89.24
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$81.86
Record
16%
9-47 (56)
Invested
$94.82
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$88.69
Record
—
Invested
$49.7
Value
$5.67
PnL
-$63.47
Record
—
0-8 (8)
Invested
$70.07
Value
$5
PnL
-$65.07
Record
13%
5-33 (38)
Gucky-45CTR<$100Invested
$18.99
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$16.59
Record
—
0-7 (7)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100Invested
$18.51
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$16.7
Record
—
0-15 (15)
Invested
$25.78
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$24.08
Record
0%
0-112 (112)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$23.51
Record
33%
204-415 (619)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$1.11
Record
—
1-0 (1)
QualitativeCTR<$100Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$5.16
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
CTRYes — $320.7
Q96s3kwozynxpau
CTRYes — $155.65
petanimal
CTRYes — $104.5
smoltrader
CTRYes — $81.41
J-E-R
CTRYes — $56.42
0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0
CTRYes — $53.28
JamesAltucher
CTRYes — $51
uprightuser
CTRYes — $50
ImJustKen
CTRYes — $46.54
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A
CTRYes — $41.59