Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 8, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $25 held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$24.84

Combined PnL

$13.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$24.15

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$4.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares455

Combined PnL+$9.37

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$13.07	$12.79	+$6.12	49% 752-789 (1541)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$49.88	$11.37	-$1.71	14% 503-3033 (3536)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$10.03	$0.43	+$10.41	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.29	$0.25	-$1.04	20% 2639-10442 (13081)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$13.07

Value

$12.79

PnL

+$6.12

Record

49%

752-789 (1541)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$49.88

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$1.71

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.03

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$10.41

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.04

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.