Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Virna Jandiroba, while the market favors Tatiana Suarez (98%). 12 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UFC Fight Night: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

12 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Virna Jandiroba (43%) · Virna Jandiroba at 2.0¢ · $96K held · ends Nov 8

Tatiana Suarez98¢Virna Jandiroba2¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virna Jandiroba

Consensus Traders

Virna Jandiroba 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$95.9K

Combined PnL

$-13.1K

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 2¢

-94% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirna Jandiroba at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virna Jandiroba

12 of 28 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Tatiana Suarez 98%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tatiana Suarez98%

Virna Jandiroba2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virna Jandiroba12 traders

Total Value$41.6K

Total Shares145,171

Combined PnL$-24.3K

Tatiana Suarez16 traders

Total Value$49.4K

Total Shares53,861

Combined PnL+$11.2K

Virna Jandiroba — 43%Tatiana Suarez — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 34¢	$38.8K	$28.0K	$-10.8K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Tatiana Suarezavg 64.1¢	$14.3K	$21.1K	+$6.8K	48% 405-446 (851)
FK FKMY	Tatiana Suarezavg 78.2¢	$8.2K	$9.9K	+$1.7K	63% 41-24 (65)
OL olegioCTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 34¢	$7.7K	$7.8K	+$110.82	44% 445-571 (1016)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tatiana Suarezavg 65.6¢	$3.6K	$4.9K	+$1.3K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Virna Jandirobaavg 34.3¢	$15.8K	$3.1K	$-2.9K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ Tatiana Suarez leg	Tatiana Suarezavg 63.9¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$855.99
└ Virna Jandiroba leg	Virna Jandirobaavg 34.3¢	$4.6K	$737.1	$-3.8K
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 33.3¢	$15.0K	$2.9K	$-12.1K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Tatiana Suarezavg 70.1¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$579.62	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
GA gaclfz	Tatiana Suarezavg 76.6¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$474.74	74% 1346-485 (1831)
CO CornerGamingCTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 24.8¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$502.01	47% 14-16 (30)
JO JokerTheClown	Tatiana Suarezavg 65¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$15	51% 4164-4032 (8196)
OJ ojg	Tatiana Suarezavg 88¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$54.76	43% 838-1096 (1934)
AN analdesutructor	Tatiana Suarezavg 89¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$86.63	53% 202-182 (384)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Tatiana Suarezavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$11.11	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
4751346	Tatiana Suarezavg 75.8¢	$3.5K	$966.1	+$237.11	73% 1321-500 (1821)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Virna Jandirobaavg 32.9¢	$4.0K	$848.14	$-3.2K	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
└ Virna Jandiroba leg	Virna Jandirobaavg 32.9¢	$3.7K	$451.62	$-3.3K
└ Tatiana Suarez leg	Tatiana Suarezavg 68.3¢	$281.96	$396.52	+$114.56
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100	Virna Jandirobaavg 11.9¢	$1.2K	$683.87	-$500.96	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
└ Tatiana Suarez leg	Tatiana Suarezavg 69.1¢	$271.33	$376.82	+$105.49
└ Virna Jandiroba leg	Virna Jandirobaavg 11.9¢	$913.5	$307.05	-$606.45
PA pauleta23	Tatiana Suarezavg 74.1¢	$697.9	$612.78	-$85.12	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
FR frohp5CTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 36¢	$500	$493.06	-$6.94	65% 2092-1126 (3218)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tatiana Suarezavg 65¢	$402	$398.91	-$3.09	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
dips.ARB<$100	Virna Jandirobaavg 11.1¢	$503.45	$197.02	-$306.43	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
└ Tatiana Suarez leg	Tatiana Suarezavg 69.8¢	$87.05	$122.26	+$35.21
└ Virna Jandiroba leg	Virna Jandirobaavg 11.1¢	$416.4	$74.76	-$341.64
clazzy1	Tatiana Suarezavg 64¢	$128	$187	+$59	65% 523-277 (800)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 37.2¢	$165.12	$146.67	-$18.45	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Virna Jandirobaavg 11¢	$345.87	$94.33	-$251.54	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
ES esticamos	Tatiana Suarezavg 64¢	$981.72	$74.79	+$108.11	51% 191-186 (377)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$38,836.59

Value

$28.0K

PnL

$-10.8K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Multicoloured-Serf

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$14,303.22

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

FKMY

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$8,225.95

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

63%

41-24 (65)

olegioCTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$7,701

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$110.82

Record

44%

445-571 (1016)

omnibus-076daa

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$3,607.36

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$15,809.83

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

Tatiana Suarez$1,596.9763.9¢+$855.99

Virna Jandiroba$4,593.2534.3¢$-3.8K

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$14,999.98

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-12.1K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,661.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$579.62

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

gaclfz

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,701.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$474.74

Record

74%

1346-485 (1831)

CornerGamingCTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$2,544.47

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$502.01

Record

47%

14-16 (30)

JokerTheClown

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,950

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

4164-4032 (8196)

ojg

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,966.33

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$54.76

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

analdesutructor

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,401.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$86.63

Record

53%

202-182 (384)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$1,444.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.11

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

4751346

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$3,482.2

Value

$966.1

PnL

+$237.11

Record

73%

1321-500 (1821)

takeormakeARB<$100

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$4,000.36

Value

$848.14

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Both legs:

Virna Jandiroba$3,718.432.9¢$-3.3K

Tatiana Suarez$281.9668.3¢+$114.56

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eARB<$100

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$1,184.83

Value

$683.87

PnL

-$500.96

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

Both legs:

Tatiana Suarez$271.3369.1¢+$105.49

Virna Jandiroba$913.511.9¢-$606.45

pauleta23

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$697.9

Value

$612.78

PnL

-$85.12

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

frohp5CTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$500

Value

$493.06

PnL

-$6.94

Record

65%

2092-1126 (3218)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$402

Value

$398.91

PnL

-$3.09

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

dips.ARB<$100

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$503.45

Value

$197.02

PnL

-$306.43

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Both legs:

Tatiana Suarez$87.0569.8¢+$35.21

Virna Jandiroba$416.411.1¢-$341.64

clazzy1

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$128

Value

$187

PnL

+$59

Record

65%

523-277 (800)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$165.12

Value

$146.67

PnL

-$18.45

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Virna Jandiroba

Invested

$345.87

Value

$94.33

PnL

-$251.54

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

esticamos

Tatiana Suarez

Invested

$981.72

Value

$74.79

PnL

+$108.11

Record

51%

191-186 (377)

Research grade

AvoidVirna Jandiroba at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Virna Jandiroba

12 of 28 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Tatiana Suarez 98%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virna Jandiroba wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.