Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 14 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 45¢ · $152K held · ended Nov 4

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$151.6K

Combined PnL

-$324.16

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 45¢

-2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$41.5K

Total Shares74,147

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over14 traders

Total Value$76.6K

Total Shares169,852

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrOver 73% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 54.2¢	$39.7K	$41.0K	+$1.3K	54% 1208-1030 (2238)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$24.2K	$24.6K	+$325.41	56% 6179-4951 (11130)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$17.2K	$16.8K	-$328.52	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$15.5K	$16.0K	+$535.12	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.9¢	$8.3K	$9.5K	+$1.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$7.2K	$6.5K	-$658.66
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$13.1K	$12.7K	-$471.15	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$9.9K	$9.8K	-$46.12	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	-$165.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.1¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$119.13
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$8.9K	$8.4K	-$465.59	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
DO Dor88CTR	Overavg 48¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$345.85	41% 16-23 (39)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$102.02	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$0	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$170
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$170
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$0	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$170
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$170
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$112.98	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$120.31	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$964.67	$1.0K	+$65.68	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$722.11	$789.04	+$66.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.2¢	$242.56	$241.31	-$1.24
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 44¢	$471.59	$482.17	+$10.57	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 47¢	$422.99	$404.99	-$18	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$1.0K	$356	-$32.8	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 49¢	$196	$224	+$28	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 49¢	$120.11	$137.22	+$17.11	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$65.01	$73.92	+$8.91	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$76.47	$71.44	-$5.02	58% 6502-4666 (11168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$55.75	$60.6	+$4.85	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 45.4¢	$32.04	$31.73	-$0.31	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 58¢	$10.93	$10.55	-$1.6	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.41	$3.33	-$0.07	57% 12279-9333 (21612)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$39,729.46

Value

$41.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

1208-1030 (2238)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$24,234.07

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$325.41

Record

56%

6179-4951 (11130)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$17,150.75

Value

$16.8K

PnL

-$328.52

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$15,463.69

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$535.12

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

Both legs:

Under$8,262.0348.9¢+$1.2K

Over$7,201.6649.5¢-$658.66

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$13,142.11

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$471.15

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$9,861.16

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$46.12

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Over$6,410.9646.2¢-$165.25

Under$3,450.254.1¢+$119.13

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$8,879.58

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$465.59

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

Dor88CTR

Over

Invested

$5,521.54

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$345.85

Record

41%

16-23 (39)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$3,828.86

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$102.02

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,340.5

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Over$2,082.549¢-$170

Under$1,25849.3¢+$170

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,340.5

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Over$2,082.549¢-$170

Under$1,25849.3¢+$170

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$3,248.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$112.98

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,316.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$120.31

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$964.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$65.68

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

Both legs:

Under$722.1151.2¢+$66.93

Over$242.5645.2¢-$1.24

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$471.59

Value

$482.17

PnL

+$10.57

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$422.99

Value

$404.99

PnL

-$18

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$356

PnL

-$32.8

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$224

PnL

+$28

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$120.11

Value

$137.22

PnL

+$17.11

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$65.01

Value

$73.92

PnL

+$8.91

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.47

Value

$71.44

PnL

-$5.02

Record

58%

6502-4666 (11168)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$55.75

Value

$60.6

PnL

+$4.85

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.04

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$10.93

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$1.6

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

12279-9333 (21612)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrOver 73% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.