Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?

13 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (48%) · Yes at 95¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 6

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.0K

Combined PnL

$8.9K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 95¢

+88% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 27 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares54,441

Combined PnL+$22.7K

No14 traders

Total Value$947.76

Total Shares35,920

Combined PnL$-13.8K

Yes — 48%No — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (27 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roundtripped	Yesavg 52¢	$8.1K	$14.6K	+$5.9K	66% 160-83 (243)
morito181	Yesavg 38.2¢	$5.6K	$13.8K	+$8.1K	61% 847-548 (1395)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 29.6¢	$2.2K	$6.9K	+$4.7K	62% 172-104 (276)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 76.3¢	$4.3K	$5.3K	+$987.12	60% 905-591 (1496)
shineforever	Yesavg 43.7¢	$1.4K	$3.0K	+$1.5K	58% 82-60 (142)
TI timezonewarrior	Yesavg 96.2¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$48.32	45% 111-137 (248)
xxNyx	Yesavg 82.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	+$279.99	82% 1764-396 (2160)
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081ARB<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	$-1.4K	51% 226-221 (447)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 94.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.07
└ No leg	Noavg 33.2¢	$2.1K	$295.04	$-1.5K
HY hydra1248	Yesavg 44.2¢	$672.03	$1.4K	+$689.5	67% 52-26 (78)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$15.2K	$1.4K	$-13.9K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.9¢	$18.1K	$839.19	$-14.1K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.9¢	$228.75	$510.95	+$248.4
DI dips.	Yesavg 89.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$75.09	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 49¢	$12.2K	$659.63	$-10.6K	50% 512-509 (1021)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 59¢	$351.74	$558.7	+$217.7	53% 106-95 (201)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 37¢	$113.21	$286.69	+$172.72	52% 277-254 (531)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 46¢	$102.36	$208.5	+$105.58	82% 75-17 (92)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39¢	$61.65	$148.11	+$85.51	53% 172-152 (324)
BI BiggggggggARB<$100	Noavg 16.1¢	$323.82	$110.99	-$205.38	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
└ Yes leg	Yes	$63.62	$63.62	+$36
└ No leg	Noavg 16.1¢	$288.76	$47.37	-$241.38
FE ferdinand2ARB<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$979.77	$109.48	-$873.3	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.4¢	$38.95	$67.13	+$25.17
└ No leg	Noavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$42.36	-$898.47
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$19.88	$67.51	+$47.62	39% 974-1548 (2522)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 56.1¢	$1.4K	$65.96	$-1.3K	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
HRTradingARB<$100	Noavg 55¢	$600.22	$53.11	-$547.11	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
└ No leg	Noavg 55¢	$589.47	$28.28	-$561.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.6¢	$10.75	$24.83	+$14.08
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 62.2¢	$2.2K	$50.38	$-1.1K	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 54¢	$588.85	$28.77	-$560.08	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 29.2¢	$310.88	$25.46	-$255.64	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$161.84	$12.93	-$148.91	63% 710-409 (1119)

roundtripped

Yes

Invested

$8,113.62

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

66%

160-83 (243)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$5,620.2

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

61%

847-548 (1395)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$2,169.18

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

62%

172-104 (276)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$4,325.29

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$987.12

Record

60%

905-591 (1496)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$1,402.88

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

timezonewarrior

Yes

Invested

$1,852.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$48.32

Record

45%

111-137 (248)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$2,032.09

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$279.99

Record

82%

1764-396 (2160)

0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081ARB<$100

Invested

$2,893.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

226-221 (447)

Both legs:

Yes$1,140.6294.6¢+$9.07

No$2,131.7233.2¢$-1.5K

hydra1248

Yes

Invested

$672.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$689.5

Record

67%

52-26 (78)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$15,174.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-13.9K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Both legs:

No$18,082.6956.9¢$-14.1K

Yes$228.7541.9¢+$248.4

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,149.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$75.09

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$12,250

Value

$659.63

PnL

$-10.6K

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$351.74

Value

$558.7

PnL

+$217.7

Record

53%

106-95 (201)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$113.21

Value

$286.69

PnL

+$172.72

Record

52%

277-254 (531)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$102.36

Value

$208.5

PnL

+$105.58

Record

82%

75-17 (92)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$61.65

Value

$148.11

PnL

+$85.51

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

BiggggggggARB<$100

Invested

$323.82

Value

$110.99

PnL

-$205.38

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

Both legs:

Yes$63.62—+$36

No$288.7616.1¢-$241.38

ferdinand2ARB<$100

Invested

$979.77

Value

$109.48

PnL

-$873.3

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

Both legs:

Yes$38.9554.4¢+$25.17

No$1,067.0366.5¢-$898.47

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$47.62

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,403.06

Value

$65.96

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

HRTradingARB<$100

Invested

$600.22

Value

$53.11

PnL

-$547.11

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

Both legs:

No$589.4755¢-$561.19

Yes$10.7540.6¢+$14.08

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,205.45

Value

$50.38

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$588.85

Value

$28.77

PnL

-$560.08

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$310.88

Value

$25.46

PnL

-$255.64

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$161.84

Value

$12.93

PnL

-$148.91

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 27 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (27 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 21

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 52% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.