Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 53% (262–229, n=491) · PM monthly #332 · holds 111 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.9K
Record
262W / 229L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 491 settled
Batting Avg
53.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1660
Source
PM monthly #332
Record (90 d)
236/474 · 50%
Trades
2,729
Markets
670
Volume
$248.5K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
111 in listed consensus markets · 81 of 111 on the consensus side (73%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $18K · now 95¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 197)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $6.8K · now 75¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 174)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $5.7K · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 29)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $4.4K · now 77¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (82% of 148)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $4.1K · now 77¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (72% of 127)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $3.4K · now 74¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (56% of 100)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 74¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (54% of 115)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $2.7K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (73% of 136)
Specialties
455 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 47¢- Tech
+11 pts
side won 63% of 90 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 39% of 46 · avg entry 36¢
ROI −1%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 58% of 26 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 46% of 82 at an average 47¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 15% of 175)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 52% of 71)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 58% of 73)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 90% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.