Consensus PnL $71K · win rate 85% (1264–230, n=1494) · was PM monthly #851 · holds 56 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$71.1K
Record
1264W / 230L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 1494 settled
Batting Avg
70.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#353
Source
PM monthly #851 + pinned
Record (90 d)
232/316 · 73%
Trades
42,885
Markets
2,520
Volume
$4.3M
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Top consensus positions
56 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 56 on the consensus side (82%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $8.1K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (85% of 196)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $7.5K · now 75¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (78% of 166)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $6.8K · now 75¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (72% of 140)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $6.7K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (75% of 130)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $6.2K · now 61¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (58% of 54)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $5.7K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (70% of 115)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $3.9K · now 40¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (64% of 83)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?No $3.4K · now 87¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
Specialties
1,845 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 79¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 84% of 316 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 80% of 576 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 82% of 202 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 66% of 70 at an average 71¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 9% of 249)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 51% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 56% of 108)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 1399)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.