Spread: Rockets (-9.5)

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (25%) · Jazz at 81¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 14

Rockets20¢Jazz80¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 25%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.2K

Combined PnL

$837.31

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 80.5¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 16 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets20%

Jazz81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares30,316

Combined PnL+$6.3K

Rockets12 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares29,145

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Jazz — 25%Rockets — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Jazzavg 59.9¢	$18.0K	$24.1K	+$6.2K	63% 253-150 (403)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Rocketsavg 40¢	$9.2K	$4.5K	$-4.7K	51% 3833-3624 (7457)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jazzavg 51.1¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	+$460.45	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 51.1¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$1.1K
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 35¢	$1.3K	$741.66	-$590.74
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52.8¢	$1.6K	$839.71	-$726.06	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$434.89	-$805.36
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 65.5¢	$325.53	$404.83	+$79.3
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 46.8¢	$610.36	$706	+$95.63	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Rocketsavg 42.3¢	$218.14	$288.49	+$70.36	48% 465-495 (960)
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocketsavg 40¢	$182.8	$255.92	+$73.12	45% 259-311 (570)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Jazzavg 70.1¢	$274.34	$240.49	-$33.85	37% 841-1416 (2257)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 70.1¢	$145.08	$133.52	-$11.56
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 42.9¢	$129.26	$106.97	-$22.29
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Jazzavg 43.9¢	$119.76	$219.77	+$100.01	59% 3410-2403 (5813)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rocketsavg 40.3¢	$509.9	$188.35	-$321.54	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
MI micky456CTR	Rocketsavg 40¢	$385.42	$187.88	-$197.54	47% 489-544 (1033)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Rocketsavg 41.9¢	$318.4	$148.2	-$170.2	64% 535-298 (833)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Jazzavg 46.6¢	$148.04	$98.09	+$15.97	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46.6¢	$52.18	$72.24	+$24.27
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 41.4¢	$30.13	$25.84	-$8.3
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Rocketsavg 38.2¢	$2.1K	$88.08	-$200.87	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Rocketsavg 36.7¢	$132.37	$55.96	-$76.42	44% 422-532 (954)
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 41.7¢	$476.45	$29.19	+$6.66	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 31.7¢	$46.38	$20.18	-$11.8	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
LI LightParadox<$100	Jazzavg 28.8¢	$10.93	$16.72	+$5.79	36% 911-1587 (2498)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 72¢	$6.48	$5.04	-$1.44	32% 147-308 (455)
MA MadridTime<$100	Jazzavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.2	+$0.6	37% 926-1560 (2486)

Woaifacai

Jazz

Invested

$17,978.74

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

63%

253-150 (403)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Rockets

Invested

$9,182.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

51%

3833-3624 (7457)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3,388.07

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$460.45

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,526.5251.1¢+$1.1K

Rockets$1,332.4135¢-$590.74

takeormakeARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$1,565.77

Value

$839.71

PnL

-$726.06

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,240.2452.8¢-$805.36

Jazz$325.5365.5¢+$79.3

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$610.36

Value

$706

PnL

+$95.63

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Rockets

Invested

$218.14

Value

$288.49

PnL

+$70.36

Record

48%

465-495 (960)

alpheclabs2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$182.8

Value

$255.92

PnL

+$73.12

Record

45%

259-311 (570)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$274.34

Value

$240.49

PnL

-$33.85

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Both legs:

Jazz$145.0870.1¢-$11.56

Rockets$129.2642.9¢-$22.29

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Jazz

Invested

$119.76

Value

$219.77

PnL

+$100.01

Record

59%

3410-2403 (5813)

6512395314597884CTR

Rockets

Invested

$509.9

Value

$188.35

PnL

-$321.54

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

micky456CTR

Rockets

Invested

$385.42

Value

$187.88

PnL

-$197.54

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

suitcase6628CTR

Rockets

Invested

$318.4

Value

$148.2

PnL

-$170.2

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

Pan9XARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$148.04

Value

$98.09

PnL

+$15.97

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Both legs:

Jazz$52.1846.6¢+$24.27

Rockets$30.1341.4¢-$8.3

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,122.59

Value

$88.08

PnL

-$200.87

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

justaluckydudeCTR

Rockets

Invested

$132.37

Value

$55.96

PnL

-$76.42

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$476.45

Value

$29.19

PnL

+$6.66

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$46.38

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$11.8

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

LightParadox<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10.93

Value

$16.72

PnL

+$5.79

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.48

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$1.44

Record

32%

147-308 (455)

MadridTime<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 16 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.