Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors Lakers (91%). 9 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

9 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (29%) · Pistons at 9.5¢ · $95K held · ended Nov 8

Pistons10¢Lakers90¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 29%

Total Value

$94.6K

Combined PnL

$8.3K

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 9.5¢

-83% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 31 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 91%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons10%

Lakers91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers22 traders

Total Value$64.4K

Total Shares73,596

Combined PnL+$14.3K

Pistons9 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares61,803

Combined PnL$-6.0K

Lakers — 71%Pistons — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 47.9¢	$32.2K	$35.4K	+$3.2K	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
CH ch27erCTR	Pistonsavg 57.7¢	$25.5K	$23.7K	$-1.9K	55% 48-40 (88)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 45.1¢	$7.9K	$12.8K	+$6.1K	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Lakersavg 46.5¢	$4.1K	$7.4K	+$3.3K	48% 521-567 (1088)
IA ianf2026CTR	Pistonsavg 55¢	$4.4K	$2.6K	$-1.8K	50% 126-128 (254)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Lakersavg 48.1¢	$903.08	$1.6K	+$710.1	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
HI hi774c	Lakersavg 54¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$221.96	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
NM NM-PCTR	Pistonsavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$33.49	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
GC GC-PCTR	Pistonsavg 53.1¢	$925.92	$989.21	+$63.29	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
AN Anon455	Lakersavg 47¢	$735	$952.5	+$217.5	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
GA Gaditima	Lakersavg 51¢	$1.0K	$910	-$110	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
65 6512395314597884	Lakersavg 52.4¢	$521.07	$879.48	+$358.41	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
FL Flaznorp	Lakersavg 48.2¢	$534.08	$768.51	+$234.43	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lakersavg 50¢	$420.63	$667.81	+$247.18	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
SE sentrioCTR	Pistonsavg 53¢	$1.0K	$581.75	+$10.56	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
XY xyz.eww	Lakersavg 47.2¢	$512.58	$504.53	-$8.05	53% 18-16 (34)
nigiri99CTR	Pistonsavg 53.5¢	$2.7K	$472.82	$-2.2K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
VI vibing123CTR	Pistonsavg 52¢	$433.76	$446.19	+$12.43	52% 1735-1631 (3366)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lakersavg 52¢	$208	$320	+$112	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
RN1CTR	Pistonsavg 50.5¢	$366.37	$307.15	-$59.23	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
SN SnakeBall	Lakersavg 47.7¢	$117.27	$201.08	+$83.8	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 47.3¢	$93.1	$143.57	+$50.47	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$65.66	$99.83	+$34.17	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
BI biying99999<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$89.22	$79.62	-$9.59	47% 150-169 (319)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 44.9¢	$38.54	$56.75	+$18.21	52% 27288-24794 (52082)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$32,183.24

Value

$35.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

ch27erCTR

Pistons

Invested

$25,543.68

Value

$23.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

48-40 (88)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$7,894.99

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Multicoloured-Serf

Lakers

Invested

$4,051.79

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

ianf2026CTR

Pistons

Invested

$4,399.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

126-128 (254)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Lakers

Invested

$903.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$710.1

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

hi774c

Lakers

Invested

$1,775.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$221.96

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

NM-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,017.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$33.49

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

GC-PCTR

Pistons

Invested

$925.92

Value

$989.21

PnL

+$63.29

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Anon455

Lakers

Invested

$735

Value

$952.5

PnL

+$217.5

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Gaditima

Lakers

Invested

$1,020

Value

$910

PnL

-$110

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

6512395314597884

Lakers

Invested

$521.07

Value

$879.48

PnL

+$358.41

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Flaznorp

Lakers

Invested

$534.08

Value

$768.51

PnL

+$234.43

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lakers

Invested

$420.63

Value

$667.81

PnL

+$247.18

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

sentrioCTR

Pistons

Invested

$1,041.19

Value

$581.75

PnL

+$10.56

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

xyz.eww

Lakers

Invested

$512.58

Value

$504.53

PnL

-$8.05

Record

53%

18-16 (34)

nigiri99CTR

Pistons

Invested

$2,663.89

Value

$472.82

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

vibing123CTR

Pistons

Invested

$433.76

Value

$446.19

PnL

+$12.43

Record

52%

1735-1631 (3366)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lakers

Invested

$208

Value

$320

PnL

+$112

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

RN1CTR

Pistons

Invested

$366.37

Value

$307.15

PnL

-$59.23

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

SnakeBall

Lakers

Invested

$117.27

Value

$201.08

PnL

+$83.8

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$93.1

Value

$143.57

PnL

+$50.47

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Lakers

Invested

$65.66

Value

$99.83

PnL

+$34.17

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

biying99999<$100

Lakers

Invested

$89.22

Value

$79.62

PnL

-$9.59

Record

47%

150-169 (319)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$38.54

Value

$56.75

PnL

+$18.21

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

9 of 31 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 91%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.