Spread: Spurs (-16.5)

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (41%) · Spurs at 92¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Spurs92¢Warriors8¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 41%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$436.84

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 91.5¢

+61% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs92%

Warriors9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares9,709

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Warriors10 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares8,984

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Spurs — 41%Warriors — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (17 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 59% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ch27er	Spursavg 44.1¢	$2.5K	$5.2K	+$2.7K	27% 19-52 (71)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Spursavg 70.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$339.96	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
SU suitcase6628	Spursavg 79¢	$742.6	$860.1	+$117.5	64% 535-298 (833)
RN1	Spursavg 77.6¢	$597.75	$669.9	+$72.15	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
GA GaditimaCTR	Warriorsavg 55.4¢	$1.5K	$346.53	$-1.1K	48% 249-265 (514)
MI micky456	Spursavg 79¢	$204.61	$236.99	+$32.38	47% 489-544 (1033)
fyrskenCTR	Warriorsavg 55¢	$763.4	$180.44	-$582.96	51% 50-49 (99)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Warriorsavg 21¢	$251.79	$155.87	-$95.92	51% 470-452 (922)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Warriorsavg 16.1¢	$235.88	$124.26	-$111.62	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Warriorsavg 41.6¢	$587.56	$119.91	-$467.65	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 57.4¢	$642.86	$86.74	-$314.61	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
poshposhCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 57¢	$54.78	$12.49	-$42.28	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 59¢	$70.05	$9.35	-$21.15	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 63¢	$39.79	$8.21	-$31.58	48% 855-936 (1791)
TA takeormake<$100	Spursavg 76¢	$3.8	$4.35	+$0.55	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 18¢	$8.19	$3.87	-$4.32	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
balthazarCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 56¢	$11.2	$2.6	-$8.6	44% 5036-6461 (11497)

ch27er

Spurs

Invested

$2,500

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

27%

19-52 (71)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Spurs

Invested

$1,451.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$339.96

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

suitcase6628

Spurs

Invested

$742.6

Value

$860.1

PnL

+$117.5

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$597.75

Value

$669.9

PnL

+$72.15

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

GaditimaCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,476.09

Value

$346.53

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

249-265 (514)

micky456

Spurs

Invested

$204.61

Value

$236.99

PnL

+$32.38

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

fyrskenCTR

Warriors

Invested

$763.4

Value

$180.44

PnL

-$582.96

Record

51%

50-49 (99)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Warriors

Invested

$251.79

Value

$155.87

PnL

-$95.92

Record

51%

470-452 (922)

FlaznorpCTR

Warriors

Invested

$235.88

Value

$124.26

PnL

-$111.62

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Warriors

Invested

$587.56

Value

$119.91

PnL

-$467.65

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$642.86

Value

$86.74

PnL

-$314.61

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

poshposhCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$54.78

Value

$12.49

PnL

-$42.28

Record

48%

1014-1101 (2115)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$70.05

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$21.15

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$39.79

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$31.58

Record

48%

855-936 (1791)

takeormake<$100

Spurs

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.19

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$4.32

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

balthazarCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$11.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$8.6

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 17 top traders (41%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Spurs) and the top 1000 (17 on Warriors) disagree here.

ctrWarriors 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedSpurs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 59% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.