Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

21 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (72%) · Rockets at 63¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 12

Rockets63¢Warriors37¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 63¢

+24% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets63%

Warriors37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors8 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares42,899

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Rockets21 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares42,946

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Warriors — 28%Rockets — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (15 on Rockets) disagree here.

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ch27erCTR	Warriorsavg 49.8¢	$12.5K	$9.4K	$-3.1K	21% 12-46 (58)
LI lightotunnel35	Rocketsavg 55¢	$5.3K	$5.7K	+$431.35	7% 4-53 (57)
saintaphextwin	Rocketsavg 49.9¢	$5.0K	$5.6K	+$611.05	3% 5-179 (184)
EdZachary	Rocketsavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$0	3% 3-113 (116)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Warriorsavg 45¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$138.24	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	Warriorsavg 47¢	$3.8K	$3.2K	-$611.49	6% 3-51 (54)
65 6512395314597884	Rocketsavg 53.8¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$178.05	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Rocketsavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$88.52	51% 3730-3553 (7283)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Rocketsavg 51.1¢	$2.0K	$972.49	-$47.36	55% 843-701 (1544)
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$902.6	$894.47	-$8.13	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$472.86	$530.06	+$57.21
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 54.2¢	$429.74	$364.41	-$65.34
FL Flaznorp	Rocketsavg 53.8¢	$785.75	$883.7	+$97.95	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SU suitcase6628	Rocketsavg 53¢	$530	$605	+$75	63% 291-169 (460)
TA takeormake	Rocketsavg 55.7¢	$469.98	$510.62	+$40.64	58% 3230-2327 (5557)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Rocketsavg 51¢	$745.76	$466.94	+$21.18	47% 279-315 (594)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Warriorsavg 32.5¢	$167.82	$190.92	+$23.1	39% 233-367 (600)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Rocketsavg 53¢	$153.17	$174.85	+$21.68	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
38 38791873984189	Rocketsavg 50.4¢	$805.92	$151.55	+$77.84	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9X	Rocketsavg 54.9¢	$357.03	$142.72	-$1.5	49% 786-829 (1615)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 40¢	$68.63	$91.78	+$23.15	31% 444-971 (1415)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 54¢	$89.04	$89.04	+$0	70% 1672-718 (2390)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$84.25	$86.12	+$1.87	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
MA MadridTime<$100	Rocketsavg 45.9¢	$68.38	$73.8	+$5.42	32% 444-952 (1396)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Rocketsavg 52¢	$63.64	$66.17	+$2.53	40% 438-657 (1095)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 52¢	$41.31	$44.09	+$2.78
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 45¢	$22.33	$22.08	-$0.25
LR lryyy<$100	Rocketsavg 49.7¢	$65.56	$60.72	-$4.84	45% 304-377 (681)
CI cigarettes<$100	Rocketsavg 50¢	$50	$46	-$4	53% 5912-5294 (11206)

ch27erCTR

Warriors

Invested

$12,500

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

21%

12-46 (58)

lightotunnel35

Rockets

Invested

$5,272.11

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$431.35

Record

4-53 (57)

saintaphextwin

Rockets

Invested

$4,988.39

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$611.05

Record

5-179 (184)

EdZachary

Rockets

Invested

$4,599.99

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

3-113 (116)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Warriors

Invested

$4,405.33

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$138.24

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

fengdubisheng117CTR

Warriors

Invested

$3,832.02

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$611.49

Record

3-51 (54)

6512395314597884

Rockets

Invested

$1,425.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$178.05

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Rockets

Invested

$1,445.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$88.52

Record

51%

3730-3553 (7283)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rockets

Invested

$2,023.43

Value

$972.49

PnL

-$47.36

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$902.6

Value

$894.47

PnL

-$8.13

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Both legs:

Warriors$472.8648.2¢+$57.21

Rockets$429.7454.2¢-$65.34

Flaznorp

Rockets

Invested

$785.75

Value

$883.7

PnL

+$97.95

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

suitcase6628

Rockets

Invested

$530

Value

$605

PnL

+$75

Record

63%

291-169 (460)

takeormake

Rockets

Invested

$469.98

Value

$510.62

PnL

+$40.64

Record

58%

3230-2327 (5557)

CandleHammerDrums

Rockets

Invested

$745.76

Value

$466.94

PnL

+$21.18

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

justaluckydudeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$167.82

Value

$190.92

PnL

+$23.1

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Rockets

Invested

$153.17

Value

$174.85

PnL

+$21.68

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

38791873984189

Rockets

Invested

$805.92

Value

$151.55

PnL

+$77.84

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9X

Rockets

Invested

$357.03

Value

$142.72

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

VenusianCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$68.63

Value

$91.78

PnL

+$23.15

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$89.04

Value

$89.04

PnL

+$0

Record

70%

1672-718 (2390)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Rockets

Invested

$84.25

Value

$86.12

PnL

+$1.87

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

MadridTime<$100

Rockets

Invested

$68.38

Value

$73.8

PnL

+$5.42

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

sentrioARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$63.64

Value

$66.17

PnL

+$2.53

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

Both legs:

Rockets$41.3152¢+$2.78

Warriors$22.3345¢-$0.25

lryyy<$100

Rockets

Invested

$65.56

Value

$60.72

PnL

-$4.84

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

cigarettes<$100

Rockets

Invested

$50

Value

$46

PnL

-$4

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

21 of 29 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (15 on Rockets) disagree here.

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRockets 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.