Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (92%). 13 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (72%) · Under at 8.5¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 8

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 72%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.1K

Combined PnL

$-22.8K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 8.5¢

-82% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Over 92%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares14,362

Combined PnL+$5.7K

Under13 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares80,938

Combined PnL$-28.5K

Over — 28%Under — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$22.1K	$7.9K	$-14.2K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.2¢	$2.8K	$5.1K	+$2.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$19.3K	$2.8K	$-16.5K
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 52¢	$3.0K	$5.4K	+$2.4K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
nigiri99	Overavg 51¢	$2.9K	$5.1K	+$2.2K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 51.1¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$250.08	61% 4168-2636 (6804)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$6.6K	$3.9K	$-2.6K	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.4K
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$4.9K	$900	$-4.0K
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 48¢	$14.2K	$2.1K	$-12.1K	48% 405-446 (851)
AP AppleTiiime	Overavg 64.5¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$548.51	54% 75-64 (139)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 48¢	$6.0K	$1.1K	$-4.9K	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 51.4¢	$610.53	$1.1K	+$494.28	49% 101-107 (208)
TM TMingchanCTR	Underavg 48¢	$9.6K	$1.1K	$-8.5K	53% 24-21 (45)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$1.1K	$910.72	-$186.23	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$1.0K	$849.73	-$151.97	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$504.11	$486.87	-$17.24	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$320	$-1.6K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$783.99	$166.98	-$617.01	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$750	$105	-$645
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$33.99	$61.98	+$27.99
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$494.29	$148.71	-$345.58	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$46.04	$83.96	+$37.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$448.25	$64.75	-$383.5
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$448.25	$74	-$374.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$360.29	$58.54	-$301.75	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$70.67	$9.33	-$56.36	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.65	+$1.25	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$3.8	-$16.2	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20	$2.04	-$17.96	48% 4060-4345 (8405)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$22,088.68

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-14.2K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Over$2,752.7850.2¢+$2.3K

Under$19,335.948.4¢$-16.5K

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$3,031.89

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$2,903.69

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,835.75

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$250.08

Record

61%

4168-2636 (6804)

hi774cARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,551

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Both legs:

Over$1,65150¢+$1.4K

Under$4,90049¢$-4.0K

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$14,189.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-12.1K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

AppleTiiime

Over

Invested

$1,179.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$548.51

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$6,029.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$610.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$494.28

Record

49%

101-107 (208)

TMingchanCTR

Under

Invested

$9,600

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

53%

24-21 (45)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,096.95

Value

$910.72

PnL

-$186.23

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,001.71

Value

$849.73

PnL

-$151.97

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$504.11

Value

$486.87

PnL

-$17.24

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,940

Value

$320

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$783.99

Value

$166.98

PnL

-$617.01

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Both legs:

Invested

$494.29

Value

$148.71

PnL

-$345.58

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Over$46.0451¢+$37.92

Under$448.2548.5¢-$383.5

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$448.25

Value

$74

PnL

-$374.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$360.29

Value

$58.54

PnL

-$301.75

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.67

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$56.36

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$16.2

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$17.96

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Over 92%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.