Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 7 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (37%) · Under at 49¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 7

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 37%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.5K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 49¢

-48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares30,084

Combined PnL+$13.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares24,449

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 10.3¢	$1.7K	$6.7K	+$5.0K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 90.2¢	$9.9K	$5.4K	$-4.4K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 97¢	$8.8K	$4.4K	$-4.4K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 86.6¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$328.69	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 5.6¢	$218.53	$2.0K	+$1.8K
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.6¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	$-1.5K
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 1.3¢	$99.14	$3.2K	+$3.1K	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 82.1¢	$212.67	$2.7K	+$2.6K	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI Limousin	Overavg 4.9¢	$225.05	$2.3K	+$2.1K	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA maxiplayerCTR	Underavg 99.6¢	$4.2K	$2.1K	$-2.2K	76% 771-247 (1018)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Overavg 10.1¢	$410.88	$2.1K	+$1.7K	58% 413-298 (711)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 92.4¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$573.01	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Under leg	Underavg 92.4¢	$1.6K	$848.97	-$752.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.9¢	$575.52	$755.25	+$179.73
CI cigarettes	Overavg 0.6¢	$6.06	$515.11	+$509.05	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 91.5¢	$279.83	$361.01	+$209.87	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 3.7¢	$21.05	$287.02	+$266.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 91.5¢	$138.21	$73.99	-$57.06
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 86.1¢	$282.37	$350.25	+$67.88	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Over leg	Overavg 23¢	$115	$255	+$140
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.1¢	$167.37	$95.25	-$72.12
MA MadridTime	Overavg 4.7¢	$28.9	$314.74	+$285.84	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 5.5¢	$24.91	$229.78	+$204.87	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
VE Venusian	Overavg 8.7¢	$23.52	$138.48	+$114.96	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 5.7¢	$6.8	$61.2	+$54.4	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$55.84	$38.67	-$3.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 7.6¢	$5.1	$34.2	+$29.1	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
dips.<$100	Overavg 1¢	$0.21	$10.23	+$10.02	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 0.5¢	$0.04	$3.67	+$3.64	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$3.69	$3.41	-$0.28	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.16	$1.96	-$0.2	48% 405-446 (851)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,672.86

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$9,862.83

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$8,801.21

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,563.58

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$328.69

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$218.535.6¢+$1.8K

Under$3,345.0586.6¢$-1.5K

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$99.14

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$212.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$225.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

maxiplayerCTR

Under

Invested

$4,243.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

76%

771-247 (1018)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Over

Invested

$410.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

58%

413-298 (711)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,177.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$573.01

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Under$1,601.7292.4¢-$752.74

Over$575.5238.9¢+$179.73

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$6.06

Value

$515.11

PnL

+$509.05

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$279.83

Value

$361.01

PnL

+$209.87

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$21.053.7¢+$266.92

Under$138.2191.5¢-$57.06

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$282.37

Value

$350.25

PnL

+$67.88

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Over$11523¢+$140

Under$167.3786.1¢-$72.12

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$28.9

Value

$314.74

PnL

+$285.84

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$24.91

Value

$229.78

PnL

+$204.87

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$23.52

Value

$138.48

PnL

+$114.96

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$6.8

Value

$61.2

PnL

+$54.4

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.84

Value

$38.67

PnL

-$3.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$29.1

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$0.21

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$10.02

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$0.04

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$3.64

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.