RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $61K held · ended Nov 8

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$61.1K

Combined PnL

$8.8K

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$55.1K

Total Shares57,188

Combined PnL+$18.4K

Over9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares43,003

Combined PnL$-9.6K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56¢	$21.9K	$36.8K	+$14.9K	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 82.3¢	$11.0K	$13.3K	+$2.4K	73% 3335-1240 (4575)
CH chongchong37CTR	Overavg 40.7¢	$11.4K	$4.6K	$-6.8K	50% 150-151 (301)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 81.6¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$460.52	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
RN1CTR	Overavg 17.7¢	$2.7K	$1.1K	$-1.6K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
MA maxiplayer	Underavg 87.8¢	$2.4K	$755.1	+$203.56	76% 776-250 (1026)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 17.1¢	$3.0K	$751.71	+$153.76	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 43.6¢	$220.87	$502.79	+$281.92	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$915.81	$269.53	-$492.44	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$205.68	$205.79	+$0.1	98% 20177-401 (20578)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 99.9¢	$186.6	$186.7	+$0.09	32% 21135-45368 (66503)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 55¢	$338.66	$26.16	-$267.02	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 93¢	$23.47	$23.47	+$0	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.99	$3.17	+$2.19	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 58.9¢	$406	$0.34	-$405.66	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 12.1¢	$18.61	$0.08	-$18.53	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 2.8¢	$3.36	$0.06	-$3.3	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$10	$0.01	-$9.99	65% 25411-13605 (39016)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$21,896.67

Value

$36.8K

PnL

+$14.9K

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$10,984.48

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

73%

3335-1240 (4575)

chongchong37CTR

Over

Invested

$11,409.75

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

50%

150-151 (301)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$2,051.44

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$460.52

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,666.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

maxiplayer

Under

Invested

$2,438.65

Value

$755.1

PnL

+$203.56

Record

76%

776-250 (1026)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,959.5

Value

$751.71

PnL

+$153.76

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$220.87

Value

$502.79

PnL

+$281.92

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$915.81

Value

$269.53

PnL

-$492.44

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$205.68

Value

$205.79

PnL

+$0.1

Record

98%

20177-401 (20578)

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$186.6

Value

$186.7

PnL

+$0.09

Record

32%

21135-45368 (66503)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$338.66

Value

$26.16

PnL

-$267.02

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.47

Value

$23.47

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$406

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$405.66

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.61

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$18.53

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.3

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.99

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.