Consensus PnL $207K · win rate 99% (13606–164, n=13770) · was PM monthly #739 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$206.9K
Record
13606W / 164L
Win Rate
99.0%
of 13770 settled
Batting Avg
41.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#78
Source
PM monthly #739
Record (90 d)
11975/12108 · 99%
Trades
777
Markets
14,260
Volume
$108.7M
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Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 20 on the consensus side (95%)- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-30 House seat?Yes $2.5K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (61% of 33)
- Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (49% of 37)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?No $652 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?Yes $619 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Will the Republican Party win the CA-24 House seat?No $599 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?No $570 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?No $544 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (78% of 18)
Specialties
10,530 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 99¢- Finance
+5 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 98% of 292 at an average 99¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 15% of 85)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 67% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 90% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 100% of 10417)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.