Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $290 held · ends Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$289.68

Combined PnL

-$136.09

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$262.75

Total Shares487

Combined PnL-$116.05

Down4 traders

Total Value$26.93

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$20.04

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76¢	$316.29	$207.96	-$108.33	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$25.27	$24.88	-$0.39	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$16.06	$20	+$3.94	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$14.26	$10.4	-$3.86	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$19.79	$10.06	-$3.39	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 94.4¢	$7.55	$7.48	-$0.07	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 14.2¢	$29.99	$6.8	-$23.19	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 99.1¢	$1.98	$1.97	-$0.01	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$0.86	$0.08	-$0.78	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1.1¢	$0.05	$0.05	-$0	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$316.29

Value

$207.96

PnL

-$108.33

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$25.27

Value

$24.88

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.06

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.94

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$14.26

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$3.86

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$19.79

Value

$10.06

PnL

-$3.39

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.99

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$23.19

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.