Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $430 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$429.59

Combined PnL

$12.01

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 100¢

+94% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$186.99

Total Shares217

Combined PnL+$11.75

Up6 traders

Total Value$179.3

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$0.26

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 37.5¢	$88.8	$120.88	+$32.08	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$96.37	$97.49	+$1.12	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 40.3¢	$72.79	$63.29	-$9.5	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$49.8	$38.31	-$11.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$22.99	$24.98	+$2
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$34.04	$55.41	+$21.38	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 95¢	$38.9	$29.99	-$8.91	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$36.73	$12.75	-$23.98	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$12.59	$11.5	-$1.09	30% 12192-28156 (40348)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$11.23	$10.9	-$0.33	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$18.33	$8.49	-$9.84	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
OhioAICTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$7.29	$5.75	-$1.54	54% 10478-8831 (19309)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$0.58	$5.37	+$4.78	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$5.4	$5.23	-$0.16	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$7.96	$2.53	-$1.5	65% 130321-70183 (200504)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$88.8

Value

$120.88

PnL

+$32.08

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$96.37

Value

$97.49

PnL

+$1.12

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$72.79

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$9.5

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$49.840.3¢-$11.49

Up$22.9963.5¢+$2

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$34.04

Value

$55.41

PnL

+$21.38

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$38.9

Value

$29.99

PnL

-$8.91

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$36.73

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$23.98

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$12.59

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$1.09

Record

30%

12192-28156 (40348)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.23

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.33

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$9.84

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

OhioAICTR<$100

Invested

$7.29

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.54

Record

54%

10478-8831 (19309)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$4.78

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.16

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.