Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 100¢ · $540 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

Total Value

$539.95

Combined PnL

-$49.07

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$533.37

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$7.88

Down2 traders

Total Value$6.57

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$41.19

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$191.99	$192.96	+$0.97	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 81¢	$144.21	$130.77	-$13.44	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$75.95	$85.08	+$9.13	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$72.4	$71.05	-$1.35	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$34.76	$25	-$9.76	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$17.59	$24.35	+$6.76	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$5.42	$6.5	+$1.08	30% 12192-28156 (40348)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$4.35	$4.17	-$0.18	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 29.5¢	$42.35	$0.07	-$42.27	51% 10575-10032 (20607)

hoodquant

Invested

$191.99

Value

$192.96

PnL

+$0.97

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

asdcaxz

Invested

$144.21

Value

$130.77

PnL

-$13.44

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$75.95

Value

$85.08

PnL

+$9.13

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$72.4

Value

$71.05

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$34.76

Value

$25

PnL

-$9.76

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$17.59

Value

$24.35

PnL

+$6.76

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.42

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$1.08

Record

30%

12192-28156 (40348)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.35

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$42.27

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.