Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (44%) · Up at 100¢ · $378 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 44%

Total Value

$377.8

Combined PnL

$31.63

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$355.61

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$40.36

Down5 traders

Total Value$22.2

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$8.73

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Upavg 83.6¢	$184.06	$212.95	+$28.88	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$89.58	$98.35	+$8.77	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$27.83	$30.47	+$2.65	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$23.43	$16.58	-$6.85	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$13.78	$13.84	+$0.06	49% 81012-84457 (165469)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$3.35	$2.5	-$0.85	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.6¢	$2.18	$2.11	-$0.07	59% 63904-45042 (108946)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$1.08	$1.01	-$0.08	52% 12342-11390 (23732)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 9.3¢	$0.88	$0	-$0.88	55% 51661-42834 (94495)

pspspsps5

Invested

$184.06

Value

$212.95

PnL

+$28.88

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$89.58

Value

$98.35

PnL

+$8.77

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$30.47

PnL

+$2.65

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.43

Value

$16.58

PnL

-$6.85

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$13.78

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

81012-84457 (165469)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

63904-45042 (108946)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

12342-11390 (23732)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.88

Value

PnL

-$0.88

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.