Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 87¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 7

Up87¢Down13¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$287.39

Combined PnL

-$47.33

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 86.5¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up87%

Down14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$252.04

Total Shares445

Combined PnL-$50.8

Down2 traders

Total Value$35.35

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$3.47

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 66.2¢	$189.23	$143	-$46.23	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$71.51	$71.54	+$0.03	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$28.33	$26	-$2.33	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$20.97	$20.35	-$0.62	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$10.91	$15	+$4.09	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$5.2	$4.5	-$0.7	30% 12192-28156 (40348)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$4.75	$3.57	-$1.18	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$3.82	$3.43	-$0.39	74% 105089-37085 (142174)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$189.23

Value

$143

PnL

-$46.23

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$71.51

Value

$71.54

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.33

Value

$26

PnL

-$2.33

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.97

Value

$20.35

PnL

-$0.62

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.91

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.09

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

30%

12192-28156 (40348)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$1.18

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.39

Record

74%

105089-37085 (142174)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.3%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.