Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (58%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (90%) · Down at 42¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 7

Up58¢Down42¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$233.71

Combined PnL

-$10.16

Research grade

NeutralDown at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Up 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up58%

Down42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$93.11

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$9.24

Up1 trader

Total Value$17.33

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$0.93

Down — 90%Up — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$73.48	$68.39	-$5.08	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$31.97	$36.95	+$4.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$41.51	$31.45	-$10.06
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$50.32	$54.88	+$4.56	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$39.28	$34.38	-$4.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$11.04	$20.5	+$9.46
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$24.59	$22.29	-$2.3	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$18.32	$18.17	-$0.15	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$18.25	$17.33	-$0.93	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$11.63	$10.85	-$0.78	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$12	$10	-$2	58% 63329-46540 (109869)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$11.8	$10	-$1.8	63% 42458-25196 (67654)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$7.5	$7.29	-$0.2	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$5.74	$5.69	-$0.05	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$5.73	$4.86	-$0.87	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$5.05	$3.97	-$1.08	65% 114604-61650 (176254)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.48

Value

$68.39

PnL

-$5.08

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Both legs:

Up$31.9751.5¢+$4.98

Down$41.5153.5¢-$10.06

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$50.32

Value

$54.88

PnL

+$4.56

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

Both legs:

Invested

$24.59

Value

$22.29

PnL

-$2.3

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.32

Value

$18.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$17.33

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.63

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$0.78

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$10

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.8

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.8

Record

63%

42458-25196 (67654)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.2

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.73

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.87

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.05

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$1.08

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Up 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.