Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$431.56
-$39.37
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $98.17 | $91.75 | -$6.42 | 51% 10575-10032 (20607) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $85.05 | $77.5 | -$7.55 | 45% 40136-48079 (88215) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.4¢ | $66.15 | $77.5 | +$11.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.3¢ | $18.9 | — | -$18.9 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $75.64 | $82.09 | +$6.46 | 51% 12116-11612 (23728) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $75.95 | $83.07 | +$7.12 | 48% 6593-7284 (13877) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $35.52 | $37 | +$1.48 | 55% 51661-42834 (94495) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $36.24 | $31.08 | -$5.16 | 61% 98632-62636 (161268) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.9¢ | $21.71 | — | -$21.71 | 56% 77437-59824 (137261) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $11.08 | — | -$11.08 | 30% 12192-28156 (40348) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $10.49 | $11.06 | +$0.57 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $11.16 | $8 | -$3.16 | 65% 130321-70183 (200504) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $10 | +$0.2 | 89% 29392-3557 (32949) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.4¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 49% 81012-84457 (165469) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $4.43 | — | -$4.43 | 58% 63329-46540 (109869) |
Invested
$98.17
Value
$91.75
PnL
-$6.42
Record
51%
10575-10032 (20607)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$85.05
Value
$77.5
PnL
-$7.55
Record
45%
40136-48079 (88215)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.64
Value
$82.09
PnL
+$6.46
Record
51%
12116-11612 (23728)
Invested
$75.95
Value
$83.07
PnL
+$7.12
Record
48%
6593-7284 (13877)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$35.52
Value
$37
PnL
+$1.48
Record
55%
51661-42834 (94495)
Invested
$36.24
Value
$31.08
PnL
-$5.16
Record
61%
98632-62636 (161268)
Invested
$21.71
Value
—
PnL
-$21.71
Record
56%
77437-59824 (137261)
Invested
$11.08
Value
—
PnL
-$11.08
Record
30%
12192-28156 (40348)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$0.57
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$8
PnL
-$3.16
Record
65%
130321-70183 (200504)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.2
Record
89%
29392-3557 (32949)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
49%
81012-84457 (165469)
Invested
$4.43
Value
—
PnL
-$4.43
Record
58%
63329-46540 (109869)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
Down — $91.75
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $82.09
asdcaxz
Down — $83.07
MayorMamdani
Down — $37
asidjasiodja
Down — $31.08
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $11.06
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $8