Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $86 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$85.86

Combined PnL

-$3.44

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$43.72

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$9.11

Down4 traders

Total Value$42.13

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$12.55

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 34.3¢	$28.22	$35.09	+$6.87	51% 10575-10032 (20607)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$41.32	$30	-$11.32	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98.1¢	$5.89	$5.85	-$0.04	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$1.27	$5	+$3.73	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89.7¢	$4.53	$4.47	-$0.06	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$2.82	$2.63	-$0.2	52% 12342-11390 (23732)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$2.94	$1.81	-$1.13	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$2.29	$1.01	-$1.29	45% 40136-48079 (88215)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$28.22

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$6.87

Record

51%

10575-10032 (20607)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$41.32

Value

$30

PnL

-$11.32

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$5.89

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

PnL

+$3.73

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$0.06

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

12342-11390 (23732)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.94

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$1.13

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$1.29

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.