Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (67%) · Natus Vincere at 71¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 6

PARIVISION30¢Natus Vincere70¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$27.03

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION30%

Natus Vincere71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares11,755

Combined PnL-$222.95

PARIVISION4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares17,145

Combined PnL+$249.98

Natus Vincere — 67%PARIVISION — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePARIVISION 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crmannetje	Natus Vincereavg 73.1¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$105.79	54% 25-21 (46)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$144.45	55% 237-192 (429)
RA Rayaya	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$79.64	60% 1219-796 (2015)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$62.63	50% 1298-1290 (2588)
VI vibing123CTR	PARIVISIONavg 26.5¢	$840.13	$919.35	+$39.56	51% 1629-1539 (3168)
DA darkumbreon88	Natus Vincereavg 71.6¢	$894.74	$880.72	-$14.02	64% 1961-1092 (3053)
HL HLEbritni	Natus Vincereavg 70¢	$783.23	$783.23	+$27.97	51% 21-20 (41)
KA Kaczka	Natus Vincereavg 73.8¢	$598	$582.86	-$15.14	51% 473-454 (927)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$558.33	$571.69	+$13.36	50% 21194-21457 (42651)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$334.63	$352.74	+$18.11
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$223.7	$218.95	-$4.75
38 38791873984189	Natus Vincereavg 70.8¢	$493.61	$169.22	+$8.78	48% 61202-65997 (127199)
GH ghorrock	Natus Vincereavg 71¢	$366.37	$88.22	-$45.54	58% 21230-15422 (36652)
PU purplegatto<$100	Natus Vincereavg 74¢	$82.89	$78.45	+$0.43	49% 6296-6455 (12751)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 27¢	$45.95	$49.3	+$3.34	50% 25834-25541 (51375)

crmannetje

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$105.79

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,696.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$144.45

Record

55%

237-192 (429)

Rayaya

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,867.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$79.64

Record

60%

1219-796 (2015)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,169.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.63

Record

50%

1298-1290 (2588)

vibing123CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$840.13

Value

$919.35

PnL

+$39.56

Record

51%

1629-1539 (3168)

darkumbreon88

Natus Vincere

Invested

$894.74

Value

$880.72

PnL

-$14.02

Record

64%

1961-1092 (3053)

HLEbritni

Natus Vincere

Invested

$783.23

Value

$783.23

PnL

+$27.97

Record

51%

21-20 (41)

Kaczka

Natus Vincere

Invested

$598

Value

$582.86

PnL

-$15.14

Record

51%

473-454 (927)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$558.33

Value

$571.69

PnL

+$13.36

Record

50%

21194-21457 (42651)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$334.6328¢+$18.11

Natus Vincere$223.772¢-$4.75

38791873984189

Natus Vincere

Invested

$493.61

Value

$169.22

PnL

+$8.78

Record

48%

61202-65997 (127199)

ghorrock

Natus Vincere

Invested

$366.37

Value

$88.22

PnL

-$45.54

Record

58%

21230-15422 (36652)

purplegatto<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$82.89

Value

$78.45

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

6296-6455 (12751)

sentrioCTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$45.95

Value

$49.3

PnL

+$3.34

Record

50%

25834-25541 (51375)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePARIVISION 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 50% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 54% · 13

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.