Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

21 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (53%) · PARIVISION at 60¢ · $552K held · ends Nov 6

PARIVISION60¢Natus Vincere40¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 53%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$552.3K

Combined PnL

$7.1K

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 59.5¢

+28% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

21 of 40 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION60%

Natus Vincere41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION21 traders

Total Value$245.5K

Total Shares469,397

Combined PnL+$21.2K

Natus Vincere19 traders

Total Value$152.5K

Total Shares242,062

Combined PnL$-14.1K

PARIVISION — 53%Natus Vincere — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl	PARIVISIONavg 50.7¢	$106.5K	$125.0K	+$18.4K	58% 23-17 (40)
NS NS13ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 42.2¢	$97.1K	$116.0K	+$20.6K	52% 436-401 (837)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 42.2¢	$76.8K	$75.5K	$-1.3K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 29.4¢	$20.3K	$40.5K	+$21.9K
KJ kjhgkltivtvriurCTR	Natus Vincereavg 71.4¢	$60.0K	$58.8K	-$419.51	— 4-1 (5)
drainedandpoor	PARIVISIONavg 59.4¢	$29.3K	$29.4K	+$29.6	48% 659-710 (1369)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Natus Vincereavg 70¢	$25.7K	$25.7K	+$0	50% 7653-7799 (15452)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	PARIVISIONavg 60¢	$25.8K	$23.0K	$-2.8K	54% 1361-1180 (2541)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Natus Vincereavg 73¢	$25.6K	$15.9K	$-9.6K	54% 318-272 (590)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 70¢	$15.6K	$15.7K	+$111.11	51% 89-84 (173)
SU suleng66CTR	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$14.2K	$13.8K	-$400.18	64% 210-120 (330)
OM omnibus-076daa	PARIVISIONavg 30.9¢	$7.4K	$13.7K	+$6.3K	50% 21319-21602 (42921)
CORGII	PARIVISIONavg 31.1¢	$12.4K	$12.0K	-$420	41% 414-596 (1010)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	PARIVISIONavg 59¢	$11.8K	$11.9K	+$100	57% 692-528 (1220)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 62.6¢	$13.1K	$11.7K	$-1.5K	52% 14573-13262 (27835)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 45.1¢	$4.7K	$6.2K	+$1.5K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 62.6¢	$8.4K	$5.5K	$-3.0K
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	PARIVISIONavg 29.8¢	$11.4K	$11.5K	+$288.52	55% 239-194 (433)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 58.9¢	$11.0K	$9.5K	$-1.5K	42% 8019-11205 (19224)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 58.9¢	$8.2K	$5.6K	$-2.6K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 43.6¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.0K
GO Gooooooollllllllll	PARIVISIONavg 28¢	$8.4K	$8.7K	+$299.27	50% 1301-1292 (2593)
CR crmannetjeCTR	Natus Vincereavg 55¢	$8.0K	$5.9K	$-2.1K	54% 25-21 (46)
minjiARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 45.2¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$121.25	52% 1907-1747 (3654)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 45.2¢	$2.9K	$3.9K	+$990.55
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 68.8¢	$2.7K	$1.6K	$-1.1K
QI qiu3CTR	Natus Vincereavg 73¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$106.95	60% 49-33 (82)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 59¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$107.96	53% 2194-1936 (4130)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 59¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$193.68
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 38.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$85.72
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 52¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$493.41	56% 8074-6417 (14491)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 35.5¢	$1.4K	$2.4K	+$967.26
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 52¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$473.84
forsenxdCTR	Natus Vincereavg 52.7¢	$6.2K	$3.5K	-$552.87	53% 1113-971 (2084)
RA RayayaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$60	61% 1221-796 (2017)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$430.27	52% 8817-8025 (16842)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$553.96
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 44.9¢	$993.89	$1.1K	+$123.69
Reformedx	PARIVISIONavg 53.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$32.47	51% 883-844 (1727)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

PARIVISION

Invested

$106,517.7

Value

$125.0K

PnL

+$18.4K

Record

58%

23-17 (40)

NS13ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$97,096.21

Value

$116.0K

PnL

+$20.6K

Record

52%

436-401 (837)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$76,751.7342.2¢$-1.3K

PARIVISION$20,344.4829.4¢+$21.9K

kjhgkltivtvriurCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$59,955.77

Value

$58.8K

PnL

-$419.51

Record

—

4-1 (5)

drainedandpoor

PARIVISION

Invested

$29,325.5

Value

$29.4K

PnL

+$29.6

Record

48%

659-710 (1369)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,675.2

Value

$25.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7653-7799 (15452)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

PARIVISION

Invested

$25,819.48

Value

$23.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

54%

1361-1180 (2541)

lllllllIlllCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,565.91

Value

$15.9K

PnL

$-9.6K

Record

54%

318-272 (590)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$15,555.39

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$111.11

Record

51%

89-84 (173)

suleng66CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,203

Value

$13.8K

PnL

-$400.18

Record

64%

210-120 (330)

omnibus-076daa

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,387.16

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

50%

21319-21602 (42921)

CORGII

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,420

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$420

Record

41%

414-596 (1010)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,800

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

57%

692-528 (1220)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13,125.88

Value

$11.7K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

14573-13262 (27835)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$4,701.5745.1¢+$1.5K

Natus Vincere$8,424.3162.6¢$-3.0K

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,439.49

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$288.52

Record

55%

239-194 (433)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$11,036.89

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

42%

8019-11205 (19224)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$8,197.1958.9¢$-2.6K

PARIVISION$2,839.7143.6¢+$1.0K

Gooooooollllllllll

PARIVISION

Invested

$8,379.47

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$299.27

Record

50%

1301-1292 (2593)

crmannetjeCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,013.37

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

minjiARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$5,630.37

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$121.25

Record

52%

1907-1747 (3654)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$2,925.5945.2¢+$990.55

Natus Vincere$2,704.7968.8¢$-1.1K

qiu3CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,205.8

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$106.95

Record

60%

49-33 (82)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,279.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$107.96

Record

53%

2194-1936 (4130)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$2,551.8159¢+$193.68

PARIVISION$1,727.838.4¢-$85.72

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,576.7

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$493.41

Record

56%

8074-6417 (14491)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$1,432.335.5¢+$967.26

Natus Vincere$2,144.452¢-$473.84

forsenxdCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,201.69

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$552.87

Record

53%

1113-971 (2084)

RayayaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,867.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$60

Record

61%

1221-796 (2017)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,026.2

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$430.27

Record

52%

8817-8025 (16842)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$2,032.368¢-$553.96

PARIVISION$993.8944.9¢+$123.69

Reformedx

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,607.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$32.47

Record

51%

883-844 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

21 of 40 top traders (53%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.