Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

16 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (59%) · MOUZ at 91¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 8

TheMongolz10¢MOUZ90¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 59%

Total Value

$48.1K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 90.5¢

+28% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

16 of 27 top traders (59%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz10%

MOUZ91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TheMongolz11 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares46,608

Combined PnL+$1.5K

MOUZ16 traders

Total Value$32.7K

Total Shares41,123

Combined PnL+$2.4K

TheMongolz — 41%MOUZ — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plustiCTR	TheMongolzavg 35.5¢	$8.2K	$11.5K	+$3.4K	— 15-1 (16)
0xheavy888	MOUZavg 74.8¢	$5.0K	$6.0K	+$926.47	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
DamwonChampions2026	MOUZavg 70.5¢	$4.2K	$5.2K	+$930	53% 2198-1947 (4145)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 67.7¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$400.73	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
FE ferrariChampions2026	MOUZavg 72.1¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$396.61	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
minji	MOUZavg 62.2¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$768.98	52% 1914-1755 (3669)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 71¢	$3.6K	$2.5K	$-1.1K	61% 1227-797 (2024)
RI Richidd	MOUZavg 70.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$30.67	49% 61-63 (124)
CA calculate10	MOUZavg 84.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$117.5	54% 1335-1152 (2487)
WE westing.v1	MOUZavg 68.1¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$551.95	— 0-2 (2)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 61.1¢	$999.84	$1.4K	+$415.3	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
Up0nly	MOUZavg 77.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.96	68% 1076-497 (1573)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	TheMongolzavg 21.5¢	$666.99	$1.0K	+$342.84	52% 214-194 (408)
11 0x1196...fe97CTR	TheMongolzavg 19¢	$1.3K	$781.42	-$509.62	—
37 0x3783...171d	MOUZavg 64.2¢	$641.66	$675	+$33.35	—
PA pauleta23	MOUZavg 66.1¢	$600	$636.33	+$36.33	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	TheMongolzavg 24.2¢	$966.8	$540	-$426.8	57% 2127-1578 (3705)
FR frohp5CTR	TheMongolzavg 27¢	$1.0K	$500	-$500	65% 2092-1126 (3218)
31 319113331313111CTR	TheMongolzavg 35¢	$763.71	$483.57	-$280.14	59% 414-284 (698)
latvian.demonCTR	TheMongolzavg 26¢	$572	$308	-$264	55% 804-669 (1473)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	TheMongolzavg 28¢	$165.83	$145.18	-$20.65	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
GT gt7238CTR	TheMongolzavg 30.6¢	$207.86	$78.2	-$129.66	45% 670-828 (1498)
timebrotime	MOUZavg 71.1¢	$101.5	$71.42	-$30.08	67% 998-483 (1481)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$104.47	$45.5	-$58.97	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	MOUZavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.48	-$0.03	33% 20011-40834 (60845)

plustiCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,185.24

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

—

15-1 (16)

0xheavy888

MOUZ

Invested

$5,047.41

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$926.47

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

DamwonChampions2026

MOUZ

Invested

$4,230

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$930

Record

53%

2198-1947 (4145)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$3,310.2

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$400.73

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

ferrariChampions2026

MOUZ

Invested

$2,787.68

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$396.61

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

minji

MOUZ

Invested

$2,008.19

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$768.98

Record

52%

1914-1755 (3669)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,552.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

Richidd

MOUZ

Invested

$2,029.91

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.67

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

calculate10

MOUZ

Invested

$1,692.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$117.5

Record

54%

1335-1152 (2487)

westing.v1

MOUZ

Invested

$2,076.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$551.95

Record

—

0-2 (2)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$999.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$415.3

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Up0nly

MOUZ

Invested

$1,166.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.96

Record

68%

1076-497 (1573)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$666.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$342.84

Record

52%

214-194 (408)

0x1196...fe97CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,291.05

Value

$781.42

PnL

-$509.62

Record

—

0x3783...171d

MOUZ

Invested

$641.66

Value

$675

PnL

+$33.35

Record

—

pauleta23

MOUZ

Invested

$600

Value

$636.33

PnL

+$36.33

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$966.8

Value

$540

PnL

-$426.8

Record

57%

2127-1578 (3705)

frohp5CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,000

Value

$500

PnL

-$500

Record

65%

2092-1126 (3218)

319113331313111CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$763.71

Value

$483.57

PnL

-$280.14

Record

59%

414-284 (698)

latvian.demonCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$572

Value

$308

PnL

-$264

Record

55%

804-669 (1473)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$165.83

Value

$145.18

PnL

-$20.65

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

gt7238CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$207.86

Value

$78.2

PnL

-$129.66

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

timebrotime

MOUZ

Invested

$101.5

Value

$71.42

PnL

-$30.08

Record

67%

998-483 (1481)

omnibus-076daaCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$104.47

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$58.97

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

16 of 27 top traders (59%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.