Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors FUT Esports (65%). 18 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

18 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (50%) · MOUZ at 36¢ · $145K held · ends Nov 12

FUT Esports65¢MOUZ35¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 50%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$145.0K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 35.5¢

-54% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

18 of 36 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports65%

MOUZ36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports18 traders

Total Value$39.3K

Total Shares75,317

Combined PnL+$15.6K

MOUZ18 traders

Total Value$31.2K

Total Shares68,676

Combined PnL$-21.4K

FUT Esports — 50%MOUZ — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

49% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMOUZ 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperFUT Esports 100% · 7

Diverging

ctrFUT Esports 74% · 19

Diverging

Top 1000FUT Esports 51% · 39

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	MOUZavg 67.3¢	$16.0K	$12.5K	$-3.5K	56% 3892-3057 (6949)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 36.1¢	$3.5K	$6.5K	+$3.0K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 67.3¢	$12.6K	$6.1K	$-6.5K
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	MOUZavg 74.7¢	$64.7K	$12.0K	$-6.0K	62% 86-52 (138)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 74.7¢	$16.1K	$7.0K	$-20.6K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 25.5¢	$1.9K	$5.0K	+$14.6K
minjiARB<$100	MOUZavg 46.9¢	$8.5K	$11.6K	+$5.2K	— 9-5 (14)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 25.2¢	$3.1K	$8.4K	+$6.6K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 46.9¢	$4.6K	$3.2K	$-1.4K
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	MOUZavg 54.5¢	$9.6K	$9.3K	+$3.4K	— 7-5 (12)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 22.3¢	$1.8K	$5.4K	+$6.1K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 54.5¢	$6.5K	$3.9K	$-2.6K
BL black-rabbitARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 24.8¢	$4.5K	$8.6K	+$4.2K	7% 5-69 (74)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 24.8¢	$2.4K	$6.7K	+$4.3K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 33.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$119.84
0xheavy888ARB<$100	MOUZavg 49.1¢	$5.1K	$8.5K	+$5.0K	55% 262-216 (478)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 17.8¢	$1.7K	$6.6K	+$6.1K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 49.1¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	$-1.1K
QI qiu3	FUT Esportsavg 26.4¢	$3.0K	$6.9K	+$3.9K	6% 2-34 (36)
KK Kkunn	FUT Esportsavg 18.3¢	$1.9K	$6.3K	+$4.4K	12% 19-140 (159)
VladooosCTR	MOUZavg 73¢	$6.8K	$5.9K	-$834.81	63% 25-15 (40)
FR frohp5CTR	MOUZavg 87.5¢	$12.2K	$5.5K	$-6.7K	60% 1238-817 (2055)
WH white-rabbitARB<$100	MOUZavg 44.8¢	$3.1K	$5.4K	+$2.4K	6% 5-72 (77)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 20.8¢	$1.3K	$4.2K	+$2.9K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 44.8¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$538.72
MU muneyenjayerrr	FUT Esportsavg 22.9¢	$1.9K	$5.1K	+$3.1K	0% 0-89 (89)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	MOUZavg 71.4¢	$8.0K	$4.4K	$-3.6K	46% 897-1063 (1960)
PL plusti	FUT Esportsavg 27¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$940	29% 21-52 (73)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	MOUZavg 72.8¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$388.4	51% 2022-1934 (3956)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 19.3¢	$733.64	$2.6K	+$1.8K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 72.8¢	$2.6K	$1.2K	$-1.4K
RE redvinny	FUT Esportsavg 67.5¢	$25.6K	$3.7K	$-2.6K	16% 25-129 (154)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	FUT Esportsavg 26.5¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$763.56	— 5-11 (16)
31 319113331313111	FUT Esportsavg 48.6¢	$11.5K	$2.5K	$-1.5K	57% 101-75 (176)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a	FUT Esportsavg 27¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$592.75	— 1-7 (8)
10 10scatCTR	MOUZavg 89.6¢	$5.0K	$2.2K	$-2.8K	5% 29-527 (556)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	MOUZavg 70.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$276.68	25% 173-515 (688)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 24.7¢	$520.51	$1.4K	+$1.1K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 70.2¢	$1.5K	$680.52	-$790.42
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	MOUZavg 75.6¢	$3.9K	$2.1K	$-1.9K	51% 3760-3565 (7325)
RR rroosterCTR	MOUZavg 85¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$630	42% 26-36 (62)
12 121212121212121212121212	FUT Esportsavg 38¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$750	— 4-4 (8)
Up0nlyCTR	MOUZavg 84.7¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$477.93	— 10-2 (12)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$16,036.75

Value

$12.5K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

56%

3892-3057 (6949)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$3,464.8136.1¢+$3.0K

MOUZ$12,571.9367.3¢$-6.5K

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$64,722.35

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

62%

86-52 (138)

Both legs:

MOUZ$16,111.7274.7¢$-20.6K

FUT Esports$1,895.8725.5¢+$14.6K

minjiARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$8,525.12

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

—

9-5 (14)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$3,145.3525.2¢+$6.6K

MOUZ$4,578.1346.9¢$-1.4K

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$9,568.72

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

—

7-5 (12)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$1,779.1622.3¢+$6.1K

MOUZ$6,541.3454.5¢$-2.6K

black-rabbitARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,452.01

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

5-69 (74)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$2,423.5624.8¢+$4.3K

MOUZ$2,028.4533.5¢-$119.84

0xheavy888ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$5,109.72

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

55%

262-216 (478)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$1,709.2517.8¢+$6.1K

MOUZ$2,948.3749.1¢$-1.1K

qiu3

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,027.5

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

2-34 (36)

Kkunn

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,903.41

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

12%

19-140 (159)

VladooosCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$6,771.24

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$834.81

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

frohp5CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$12,222

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

60%

1238-817 (2055)

white-rabbitARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3,078.76

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

5-72 (77)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$1,260.5720.8¢+$2.9K

MOUZ$1,818.1844.8¢-$538.72

muneyenjayerrr

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,923.26

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

0-89 (89)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$8,004.26

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

46%

897-1063 (1960)

plusti

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,839.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$940

Record

29%

21-52 (73)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3,343.17

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$388.4

Record

51%

2022-1934 (3956)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$733.6419.3¢+$1.8K

MOUZ$2,609.5472.8¢$-1.4K

redvinny

FUT Esports

Invested

$25,639.89

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

16%

25-129 (154)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,116.37

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$763.56

Record

—

5-11 (16)

319113331313111

FUT Esports

Invested

$11,467.22

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

101-75 (176)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,778.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$592.75

Record

—

1-7 (8)

10scatCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

29-527 (556)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$2,090.19

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$276.68

Record

25%

173-515 (688)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$520.5124.7¢+$1.1K

MOUZ$1,470.9470.2¢-$790.42

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$3,942.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

51%

3760-3565 (7325)

rroosterCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$2,549.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$630

Record

42%

26-36 (62)

121212121212121212121212

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$750

Record

—

4-4 (8)

Up0nlyCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,952.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$477.93

Record

—

10-2 (12)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

18 of 36 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

49% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMOUZ 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperFUT Esports 100% · 7

Diverging

ctrFUT Esports 74% · 19

Diverging

Top 1000FUT Esports 51% · 39

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.