Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (82%). 15 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

15 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 19¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Up82¢Down18¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$43.83

Smart Money Entry

31.7¢ → 18.5¢

-42% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up82%

Down19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$527.92

Total Shares605

Combined PnL+$32.84

Down15 traders

Total Value$664.32

Total Shares2,236

Combined PnL-$76.68

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 61.7¢	$219.25	$206.49	+$14.95	57% 135-101 (236)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.5¢	$161.04	$165.72	+$4.67	54% 305-265 (570)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 29¢	$143.6	$155.98	+$12.38	39% 149-233 (382)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 35.9¢	$153.86	$125.27	-$28.59	44% 101-126 (227)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$63.9	$73.94	+$10.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.9¢	$89.96	$51.34	-$38.63
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 27.6¢	$142.76	$113.62	-$29.14	47% 140-160 (300)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$113.11	$112.32	-$0.79	47% 271-301 (572)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$95.81	$85.02	-$10.79	43% 100-134 (234)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$40.21	$54.06	+$13.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$55.6	$30.96	-$24.64
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$69.65	$64.44	-$5.21	50% 107-106 (213)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$56.6	$55.63	-$0.97	45% 208-254 (462)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$67.86	$54.74	-$13.11	48% 344-376 (720)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$46.98	$31.39	-$15.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$20.88	$23.35	+$2.48
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$70.53	$49.42	-$21.11	56% 327-259 (586)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$46.14	$47.29	+$1.15	44% 139-175 (314)
10 1000monkeys<$100	Upavg 51¢	$33.78	$45.37	+$11.58	62% 196-119 (315)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$60.8	$34.09	-$26.71	50% 122-121 (243)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$23.85	$23.55	-$0.3	40% 88-130 (218)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 71¢	$21.3	$21.15	-$0.15	46% 138-161 (299)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$16.46	$19.19	+$2.73	61% 485-306 (791)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$16	$16.4	+$0.4	57% 12-9 (21)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 30.3¢	$21.94	$15.77	-$6.17	44% 126-161 (287)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$16.8	$15.58	-$1.22	41% 240-341 (581)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$7.5	$7.88	+$0.38	53% 184-162 (346)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$5.44	$5.85	+$0.41	59% 512-354 (866)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 52¢	$5	$5.33	+$0.34	39% 195-306 (501)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.74	$3.31	+$0.57	43% 102-134 (236)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 62¢	$3.92	$3.19	-$0.73	39% 149-236 (385)

Bonereaper

Invested

$219.25

Value

$206.49

PnL

+$14.95

Record

57%

135-101 (236)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$161.04

Value

$165.72

PnL

+$4.67

Record

54%

305-265 (570)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$143.6

Value

$155.98

PnL

+$12.38

Record

39%

149-233 (382)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.86

Value

$125.27

PnL

-$28.59

Record

44%

101-126 (227)

Both legs:

Up$63.968.7¢+$10.03

Down$89.9635.9¢-$38.63

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$142.76

Value

$113.62

PnL

-$29.14

Record

47%

140-160 (300)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$113.11

Value

$112.32

PnL

-$0.79

Record

47%

271-301 (572)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.81

Value

$85.02

PnL

-$10.79

Record

43%

100-134 (234)

Both legs:

Up$40.2159.1¢+$13.85

Down$55.636.8¢-$24.64

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.65

Value

$64.44

PnL

-$5.21

Record

50%

107-106 (213)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$56.6

Value

$55.63

PnL

-$0.97

Record

45%

208-254 (462)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.86

Value

$54.74

PnL

-$13.11

Record

48%

344-376 (720)

Both legs:

Down$46.9830.7¢-$15.59

Up$20.8871.1¢+$2.48

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.53

Value

$49.42

PnL

-$21.11

Record

56%

327-259 (586)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.14

Value

$47.29

PnL

+$1.15

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

1000monkeys<$100

Invested

$33.78

Value

$45.37

PnL

+$11.58

Record

62%

196-119 (315)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.8

Value

$34.09

PnL

-$26.71

Record

50%

122-121 (243)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.85

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$0.3

Record

40%

88-130 (218)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$21.3

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

138-161 (299)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$16.46

Value

$19.19

PnL

+$2.73

Record

61%

485-306 (791)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.94

Value

$15.77

PnL

-$6.17

Record

44%

126-161 (287)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.8

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$1.22

Record

41%

240-341 (581)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

184-162 (346)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.41

Record

59%

512-354 (866)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.34

Record

39%

195-306 (501)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.74

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.57

Record

43%

102-134 (236)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.73

Record

39%

149-236 (385)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 24 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.6%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$385.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

485.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.