Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

13 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Up (34%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 34%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$348.14

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 100¢

+50% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 38 top traders (34%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,410

Combined PnL+$339.23

Down25 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,417

Combined PnL-$687.36

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.7¢	$534.92	$611.66	+$76.74	44% 101-126 (227)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 70.2¢	$610.55	$606.14	-$4.4	54% 305-265 (570)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 60¢	$467.49	$491.14	+$23.75	57% 135-101 (236)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 12.8¢	$357.04	$377.52	+$20.48	37% 141-242 (383)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 61.6¢	$311.18	$343.68	+$32.5	43% 100-134 (234)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 83.1¢	$435.74	$303.14	-$28.49	48% 344-376 (720)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 72.6¢	$278.42	$291.16	+$12.74	62% 196-119 (315)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$210.54	$211.11	+$0.56	56% 327-259 (586)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.5¢	$153.75	$165.21	+$11.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.7¢	$56.8	$45.9	-$10.9
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 73.4¢	$153.57	$205.98	+$52.41	50% 107-106 (213)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.7¢	$130.84	$201.04	+$70.2	43% 102-134 (236)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 48.5¢	$158.71	$161.87	+$3.16	47% 271-301 (572)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 56.5¢	$105.51	$154.56	+$49.05	43% 106-141 (247)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 17.1¢	$221.27	$121.33	-$99.94	39% 149-236 (385)
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR	Downavg 39.3¢	$173.58	$94.95	-$55.01	40% 88-130 (218)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 93.3¢	$87.72	$91.31	+$3.59	59% 512-354 (866)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$93.05	$62.82	-$30.22	41% 240-341 (581)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 63.4¢	$109.58	$50.79	-$58.79	43% 233-309 (542)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$61.35	$47.76	-$13.59	50% 122-121 (243)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$17.2	$47.31	+$30.11	55% 174-140 (314)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 27.8¢	$15.55	$36.41	+$20.85	53% 184-162 (346)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 7.4¢	$17.07	$35.98	+$18.91	83% 177-37 (214)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 27.6¢	$185.46	$33.39	-$152.07	44% 139-175 (314)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 23.3¢	$30.53	$29.78	-$0.76	44% 126-161 (287)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 17.2¢	$186.88	$29.62	-$157.26	39% 149-233 (382)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 26.4¢	$28.14	$23.8	-$4.34	61% 485-306 (791)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$534.92

Value

$611.66

PnL

+$76.74

Record

44%

101-126 (227)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$610.55

Value

$606.14

PnL

-$4.4

Record

54%

305-265 (570)

Bonereaper

Invested

$467.49

Value

$491.14

PnL

+$23.75

Record

57%

135-101 (236)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$357.04

Value

$377.52

PnL

+$20.48

Record

37%

141-242 (383)

GoodFallen

Invested

$311.18

Value

$343.68

PnL

+$32.5

Record

43%

100-134 (234)

blue.birds

Invested

$435.74

Value

$303.14

PnL

-$28.49

Record

48%

344-376 (720)

1000monkeys

Invested

$278.42

Value

$291.16

PnL

+$12.74

Record

62%

196-119 (315)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$210.54

Value

$211.11

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

327-259 (586)

Both legs:

Up$153.7580.5¢+$11.46

Down$56.816.7¢-$10.9

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$153.57

Value

$205.98

PnL

+$52.41

Record

50%

107-106 (213)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$130.84

Value

$201.04

PnL

+$70.2

Record

43%

102-134 (236)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$158.71

Value

$161.87

PnL

+$3.16

Record

47%

271-301 (572)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$105.51

Value

$154.56

PnL

+$49.05

Record

43%

106-141 (247)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$221.27

Value

$121.33

PnL

-$99.94

Record

39%

149-236 (385)

0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972CTR

Down

Invested

$173.58

Value

$94.95

PnL

-$55.01

Record

40%

88-130 (218)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$87.72

Value

$91.31

PnL

+$3.59

Record

59%

512-354 (866)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$93.05

Value

$62.82

PnL

-$30.22

Record

41%

240-341 (581)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$109.58

Value

$50.79

PnL

-$58.79

Record

43%

233-309 (542)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.35

Value

$47.76

PnL

-$13.59

Record

50%

122-121 (243)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$47.31

PnL

+$30.11

Record

55%

174-140 (314)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$15.55

Value

$36.41

PnL

+$20.85

Record

53%

184-162 (346)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.07

Value

$35.98

PnL

+$18.91

Record

83%

177-37 (214)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$185.46

Value

$33.39

PnL

-$152.07

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.53

Value

$29.78

PnL

-$0.76

Record

44%

126-161 (287)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$186.88

Value

$29.62

PnL

-$157.26

Record

39%

149-233 (382)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.14

Value

$23.8

PnL

-$4.34

Record

61%

485-306 (791)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 38 top traders (34%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.