Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (71%). 5 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

5 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Up (22%) · Up at 30¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Up30¢Down70¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 22%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$50.98

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 29.5¢

-57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 23 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up30%

Down71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$597.9

Total Shares916

Combined PnL-$43.44

Down18 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL+$94.42

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$723	$610.65	-$112.35	55% 9912-8220 (18132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$342.41	$446.52	+$104.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.4¢	$380.59	$164.13	-$216.46
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 75¢	$538.31	$498.99	-$39.32	58% 39891-28840 (68731)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$373.9	$403.3	+$29.4	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$148.1	$260.84	+$112.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$225.8	$142.46	-$83.34
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$414.38	$358.78	-$55.6	45% 40271-48253 (88524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$268.15	$268.71	+$0.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$146.23	$90.07	-$56.16
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$362.84	$330.02	-$32.82	66% 101096-52964 (154060)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$208.74	$252.21	+$43.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$154.1	$77.81	-$76.29
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 52.5¢	$241.58	$269.12	+$27.54	54% 16627-14068 (30695)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$265.7	$231.15	-$34.55	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$176.21	$160.71	-$15.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$89.49	$70.44	-$19.05
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$231.27	$212.19	-$19.08	59% 11369-7824 (19193)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$143.96	$137.81	-$6.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$87.3	$74.38	-$12.92
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 43.3¢	$150.32	$202.89	+$52.57	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.6¢	$113	$149.56	+$36.56	55% 15032-12453 (27485)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 60¢	$72.3	$79.45	+$7.15	52% 21152-19329 (40481)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 46¢	$54.45	$77.7	+$23.25	54% 13734-11729 (25463)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 38¢	$56.53	$74.58	+$18.05	49% 4239-4335 (8574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.7¢	$28.03	$50.96	+$22.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$28.5	$23.63	-$4.88
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$57.94	$45.65	-$12.29	49% 81148-84583 (165731)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$51.65	$39.76	-$11.89	67% 22506-10863 (33369)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$31.16	$39.19	+$8.03	12% 18959-134205 (153164)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 40.3¢	$49.05	$38.91	-$10.14	52% 10611-9950 (20561)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$32.57	$38.14	+$5.58	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$38.5	$31.1	-$7.4	58% 63445-46638 (110083)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$34.41	$30.23	-$4.18	61% 46226-29401 (75627)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$21.18	$20.62	-$0.55	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$27.88	$19.72	-$8.16	57% 9974-7459 (17433)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$17.61	$16.67	-$0.94	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$29.88	$16.19	-$13.69	65% 130517-70309 (200826)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 36¢	$12.6	$14.88	+$2.28	56% 77586-59890 (137476)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$723

Value

$610.65

PnL

-$112.35

Record

55%

9912-8220 (18132)

Both legs:

Down$342.4154.1¢+$104.11

Up$380.5968.4¢-$216.46

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$538.31

Value

$498.99

PnL

-$39.32

Record

58%

39891-28840 (68731)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$373.9

Value

$403.3

PnL

+$29.4

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

Both legs:

Down$148.140¢+$112.74

Up$225.846.8¢-$83.34

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$414.38

Value

$358.78

PnL

-$55.6

Record

45%

40271-48253 (88524)

Both legs:

Down$268.1561.4¢+$0.56

Up$146.2362.5¢-$56.16

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$362.84

Value

$330.02

PnL

-$32.82

Record

66%

101096-52964 (154060)

Both legs:

Down$208.7456.3¢+$43.47

Up$154.162.4¢-$76.29

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$241.58

Value

$269.12

PnL

+$27.54

Record

54%

16627-14068 (30695)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$265.7

Value

$231.15

PnL

-$34.55

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

Both legs:

Down$176.2165.2¢-$15.5

Up$89.4951.5¢-$19.05

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.27

Value

$212.19

PnL

-$19.08

Record

59%

11369-7824 (19193)

Both legs:

Down$143.9648.6¢-$6.16

Up$87.362.8¢-$12.92

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$150.32

Value

$202.89

PnL

+$52.57

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$113

Value

$149.56

PnL

+$36.56

Record

55%

15032-12453 (27485)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$72.3

Value

$79.45

PnL

+$7.15

Record

52%

21152-19329 (40481)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$54.45

Value

$77.7

PnL

+$23.25

Record

54%

13734-11729 (25463)

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$56.53

Value

$74.58

PnL

+$18.05

Record

49%

4239-4335 (8574)

Both legs:

Down$28.0337.7¢+$22.92

Up$28.538¢-$4.88

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$57.94

Value

$45.65

PnL

-$12.29

Record

49%

81148-84583 (165731)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$51.65

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$11.89

Record

67%

22506-10863 (33369)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$31.16

Value

$39.19

PnL

+$8.03

Record

12%

18959-134205 (153164)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$49.05

Value

$38.91

PnL

-$10.14

Record

52%

10611-9950 (20561)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$32.57

Value

$38.14

PnL

+$5.58

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$38.5

Value

$31.1

PnL

-$7.4

Record

58%

63445-46638 (110083)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$34.41

Value

$30.23

PnL

-$4.18

Record

61%

46226-29401 (75627)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.18

Value

$20.62

PnL

-$0.55

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$27.88

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$8.16

Record

57%

9974-7459 (17433)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$17.61

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$0.94

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$29.88

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$13.69

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$12.6

Value

$14.88

PnL

+$2.28

Record

56%

77586-59890 (137476)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 23 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.0%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$212.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

312.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.