Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$82.85

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,229

Combined PnL+$206.37

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares437

Combined PnL-$123.51

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$771.59	$822.78	+$51.19	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.8¢	$713.87	$822.78	+$108.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 9¢	$57.71	—	-$57.71
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 79.5¢	$931.92	$1.1K	+$178.78	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
machinelearned	Upavg 95.9¢	$566.33	$467.7	-$98.63	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$269.84	$287.19	+$17.34	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 8¢	$30.6	—	-$30.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.3¢	$239.25	$287.19	+$47.94
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 80.6¢	$302.76	$299.94	-$2.82	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$318.72	$347.05	+$28.33	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$297.51	$347.05	+$49.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.5¢	$21.21	—	-$21.21
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73.1¢	$169.75	$164.1	-$5.65	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 19.9¢	$108.01	—	-$108.01	75% 9921-3320 (13241)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$130.7	$134.06	+$3.36	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.4¢	$35.75	—	-$35.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.8¢	$94.95	$134.06	+$39.11
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$159.19	$123.07	-$36.13	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$59.53	—	-$59.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$99.66	$123.07	+$23.41
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 74.5¢	$215.3	$289	+$73.7	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 85¢	$148.85	$154.75	+$5.9	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 73.8¢	$141.55	$160.45	+$18.91	52% 21146-19323 (40469)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 88.6¢	$108.54	$78.74	-$29.8	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 92.9¢	$149.68	$146.84	-$2.84	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.9¢	$136.43	$146.84	+$10.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$13.25	—	-$13.25
AL almach	Upavg 79¢	$99.73	$125	+$25.27	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$50.34	$50.69	+$0.35	57% 9968-7456 (17424)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 92.5¢	$94.53	$102.17	+$7.65	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$35.25	$44.16	+$8.9	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$39.94	$56.5	+$16.56	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 7.4¢	$3.12	—	-$3.12	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 83.7¢	$34.39	$41.07	+$6.68	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 95.6¢	$37.79	$39.55	+$1.76	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 75¢	$8.26	$9.01	+$0.75	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$7.5	$6.14	-$1.36	49% 81117-84565 (165682)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$771.59

Value

$822.78

PnL

+$51.19

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

Both legs:

Up$713.8786.8¢+$108.91

Down$57.719¢-$57.71

Bonereaper

Invested

$931.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$178.78

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

machinelearned

Invested

$566.33

Value

$467.7

PnL

-$98.63

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$269.84

Value

$287.19

PnL

+$17.34

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

Both legs:

Down$30.68¢-$30.6

Up$239.2583.3¢+$47.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$302.76

Value

$299.94

PnL

-$2.82

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$318.72

Value

$347.05

PnL

+$28.33

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

Both legs:

Up$297.5185.7¢+$49.54

Down$21.217.5¢-$21.21

GoodFallen

Invested

$169.75

Value

$164.1

PnL

-$5.65

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$108.01

Value

—

PnL

-$108.01

Record

75%

9921-3320 (13241)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$130.7

Value

$134.06

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

Both legs:

Down$35.7517.4¢-$35.75

Up$94.9570.8¢+$39.11

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$159.19

Value

$123.07

PnL

-$36.13

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

Both legs:

Down$59.5328.6¢-$59.53

Up$99.6681¢+$23.41

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$215.3

Value

$289

PnL

+$73.7

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

Papeasy

Invested

$148.85

Value

$154.75

PnL

+$5.9

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$141.55

Value

$160.45

PnL

+$18.91

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$108.54

Value

$78.74

PnL

-$29.8

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$149.68

Value

$146.84

PnL

-$2.84

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

Both legs:

Up$136.4392.9¢+$10.41

Down$13.2527.2¢-$13.25

almach

Invested

$99.73

Value

$125

PnL

+$25.27

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$50.34

Value

$50.69

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

9968-7456 (17424)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$94.53

Value

$102.17

PnL

+$7.65

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

bosona<$100

Invested

$35.25

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$8.9

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$39.94

Value

$56.5

PnL

+$16.56

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.12

Value

—

PnL

-$3.12

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$41.07

PnL

+$6.68

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$37.79

Value

$39.55

PnL

+$1.76

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$8.26

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$1.36

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb591282f...25e03c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794043200

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$51.19

Bonereaper

Up — $1.1K

+$178.78

machinelearned

Up — $467.7

-$98.63

pspspsps5

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.34

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $299.94

-$2.82

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$28.33

GoodFallen

Up — $164.1

NIULAI4

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded