Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$381.35

Smart Money Signal

25 of 32 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,098

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up25 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,959

Combined PnL+$785.02

Down — 22%Up — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 60.4¢	$862.6	—	-$862.6	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
machinelearned	Upavg 53.3¢	$371.14	$487.89	+$116.75	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 53.1¢	$314.6	$442.88	+$128.28	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
pspspsps5	Upavg 80.3¢	$431.44	$375.2	-$56.24	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 59.1¢	$307.27	$319.26	+$11.99	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
MO mo-money	Upavg 57.3¢	$155.2	$271.09	+$115.89	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 78.4¢	$275.85	$268.33	-$7.53	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
BO bosona	Upavg 61.7¢	$162.88	$264.09	+$101.21	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
AL almach	Upavg 58.3¢	$118.93	$204	+$85.07	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
BoneOhio	Upavg 60.4¢	$185.62	$307.33	+$121.7	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.5¢	$142.04	$191.88	+$49.85	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 78.9¢	$135.65	$148.23	+$12.57	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 87.7¢	$128.66	$146.76	+$18.1	49% 4229-4328 (8557)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 76¢	$129.24	$117.86	-$11.38	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 37.6¢	$136.79	—	-$136.79	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$60.26	$81.6	+$21.34	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100	Downavg 34.9¢	$93.39	—	-$93.39	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$27.6	$65	+$37.4	63% 42543-25276 (67819)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$73.29	$56.99	-$16.29	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$27.27	$56.99	+$29.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$46.02	—	-$46.02
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$52.13	$63.35	+$11.22	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$58.4	—	-$58.4	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 93.6¢	$51.57	$55.09	+$3.52	61% 98748-62704 (161452)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$37.8	$53.62	+$15.82	65% 130470-70278 (200748)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 82¢	$37.83	$40	+$2.17	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 96.2¢	$31.22	$24.09	-$7.14	49% 81117-84565 (165682)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$862.6

Value

—

PnL

-$862.6

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

machinelearned

Invested

$371.14

Value

$487.89

PnL

+$116.75

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

Bonereaper

Invested

$314.6

Value

$442.88

PnL

+$128.28

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

pspspsps5

Invested

$431.44

Value

$375.2

PnL

-$56.24

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

asdcaxz

Invested

$307.27

Value

$319.26

PnL

+$11.99

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

mo-money

Invested

$155.2

Value

$271.09

PnL

+$115.89

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

1000monkeys

Invested

$275.85

Value

$268.33

PnL

-$7.53

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

bosona

Invested

$162.88

Value

$264.09

PnL

+$101.21

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

almach

Invested

$118.93

Value

$204

PnL

+$85.07

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

BoneOhio

Invested

$185.62

Value

$307.33

PnL

+$121.7

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

GoodFallen

Invested

$142.04

Value

$191.88

PnL

+$49.85

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$135.65

Value

$148.23

PnL

+$12.57

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

Papeasy

Invested

$128.66

Value

$146.76

PnL

+$18.1

Record

49%

4229-4328 (8557)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$129.24

Value

$117.86

PnL

-$11.38

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$136.79

Value

—

PnL

-$136.79

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$60.26

Value

$81.6

PnL

+$21.34

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$93.39

Value

—

PnL

-$93.39

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$65

PnL

+$37.4

Record

63%

42543-25276 (67819)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.29

Value

$56.99

PnL

-$16.29

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

Both legs:

Up$27.2747.8¢+$29.73

Down$46.0256.9¢-$46.02

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$52.13

Value

$63.35

PnL

+$11.22

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.4

Value

—

PnL

-$58.4

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$51.57

Value

$55.09

PnL

+$3.52

Record

61%

98748-62704 (161452)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$37.8

Value

$53.62

PnL

+$15.82

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$37.83

Value

$40

PnL

+$2.17

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$31.22

Value

$24.09

PnL

-$7.14

Record

49%

81117-84565 (165682)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 32 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7dca0c7f...4c97d8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794042600

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$862.6

machinelearned

Up — $487.89

+$116.75

Bonereaper

Up — $442.88

+$128.28

pspspsps5

Up — $375.2

-$56.24

asdcaxz

Up — $319.26

+$11.99

mo-money

Up — $271.09

+$115.89

1000monkeys

Up — $268.33

-$7.53

bosona

Up — $264.09

+$101.21

almach

Up — $204

+$85.07

BoneOhio

Up — $307.33

+$121.7

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