Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$238.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 35 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,611

Combined PnL+$542.81

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$304.51

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$974.03	$999.16	+$25.13	59% 11357-7812 (19169)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$661.78	$999.16	+$337.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$312.26	—	-$312.26
BL blue.birds	Downavg 73.2¢	$949.71	$964.31	+$14.6	51% 12246-11736 (23982)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.6¢	$470.91	$895.3	+$424.4	58% 39867-28830 (68697)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.8¢	$677.51	$739.75	+$62.24	54% 16619-14058 (30677)
machinelearned	Downavg 80.5¢	$829.08	$609.03	-$220.05	55% 9903-8211 (18114)
pspspsps5	Downavg 80.3¢	$623.31	$595.46	-$27.85	45% 40240-48232 (88472)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.4¢	$535.84	$590.47	+$54.63	55% 51720-42173 (93893)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 65¢	$580.17	$589.77	+$9.6	48% 6746-7394 (14140)
AL almach	Downavg 82.9¢	$557.32	$577.29	+$19.97	55% 50268-41869 (92137)
MO mo-money	Downavg 77.5¢	$524.24	$574.99	+$50.75	55% 52367-42838 (95205)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64¢	$380.62	$435.74	+$55.12	55% 15019-12448 (27467)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 74.6¢	$380.49	$387.45	+$6.96	66% 101086-52956 (154042)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 59.5¢	$213.93	$310.76	+$96.83	54% 13726-11723 (25449)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 87.2¢	$216.02	$230.37	+$14.35	56% 60679-47194 (107873)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$212.64	$256.89	+$44.25	52% 21146-19323 (40469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$177.79	$256.89	+$79.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.2¢	$34.85	—	-$34.85
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 72.2¢	$188.8	$173.77	-$15.02	52% 10487-9495 (19982)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 80.5¢	$157.06	$142.23	-$14.83	65% 114714-61743 (176457)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 84¢	$134.4	$160	+$25.6	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
BoneOhio	Downavg 96¢	$143.97	$150	+$6.03	74% 105140-37106 (142246)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 77.5¢	$119.79	$86.83	-$32.96	52% 10599-9947 (20546)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$95.72	$80.66	-$15.06	66% 130798-67676 (198474)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$55.83	$66	+$10.17	58% 63423-46617 (110040)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR	Upavg 55.7¢	$107.63	—	-$107.63	61% 46204-29379 (75583)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 83¢	$68.02	$81.94	+$13.93	57% 9968-7456 (17424)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$49.93	$53.08	+$4.97	65% 130470-70278 (200748)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$974.03

Value

$999.16

PnL

+$25.13

Record

59%

11357-7812 (19169)

Both legs:

Down$661.7866.2¢+$337.39

Up$312.2628.2¢-$312.26

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$949.71

Value

$964.31

PnL

+$14.6

Record

51%

12246-11736 (23982)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$470.91

Value

$895.3

PnL

+$424.4

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$677.51

Value

$739.75

PnL

+$62.24

Record

54%

16619-14058 (30677)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$829.08

Value

$609.03

PnL

-$220.05

Record

55%

9903-8211 (18114)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$623.31

Value

$595.46

PnL

-$27.85

Record

45%

40240-48232 (88472)

bosona

Down

Invested

$535.84

Value

$590.47

PnL

+$54.63

Record

55%

51720-42173 (93893)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$580.17

Value

$589.77

PnL

+$9.6

Record

48%

6746-7394 (14140)

almach

Down

Invested

$557.32

Value

$577.29

PnL

+$19.97

Record

55%

50268-41869 (92137)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$524.24

Value

$574.99

PnL

+$50.75

Record

55%

52367-42838 (95205)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$380.62

Value

$435.74

PnL

+$55.12

Record

55%

15019-12448 (27467)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$380.49

Value

$387.45

PnL

+$6.96

Record

66%

101086-52956 (154042)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$213.93

Value

$310.76

PnL

+$96.83

Record

54%

13726-11723 (25449)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$216.02

Value

$230.37

PnL

+$14.35

Record

56%

60679-47194 (107873)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.64

Value

$256.89

PnL

+$44.25

Record

52%

21146-19323 (40469)

Both legs:

Down$177.7969.2¢+$79.1

Up$34.8523.2¢-$34.85

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$188.8

Value

$173.77

PnL

-$15.02

Record

52%

10487-9495 (19982)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$157.06

Value

$142.23

PnL

-$14.83

Record

65%

114714-61743 (176457)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$134.4

Value

$160

PnL

+$25.6

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$143.97

Value

$150

PnL

+$6.03

Record

74%

105140-37106 (142246)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$119.79

Value

$86.83

PnL

-$32.96

Record

52%

10599-9947 (20546)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$95.72

Value

$80.66

PnL

-$15.06

Record

66%

130798-67676 (198474)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$55.83

Value

$66

PnL

+$10.17

Record

58%

63423-46617 (110040)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR

Invested

$107.63

Value

—

PnL

-$107.63

Record

61%

46204-29379 (75583)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$68.02

Value

$81.94

PnL

+$13.93

Record

57%

9968-7456 (17424)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$49.93

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$4.97

Record

65%

130470-70278 (200748)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 35 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x25539c30...333073

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794042300

Traders in this Market

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$25.13

blue.birds

Down — $964.31

+$14.6

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $895.3

+$424.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $739.75

+$62.24

machinelearned

Down — $609.03

-$220.05

pspspsps5

Down — $595.46

-$27.85

bosona

Down — $590.47

+$54.63

asdcaxz

Down — $589.77

+$9.6

almach

Down — $577.29

+$19.97

mo-money

Down — $574.99

+$50.75

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