Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Up42¢Down58¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$11.44

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 58¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up42%

Down58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$798.96

Total Shares1,376

Combined PnL+$11.35

Up3 traders

Total Value$56.52

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$0.09

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 55.2¢	$429.02	$415.67	-$13.35	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$164.68	$160.16	-$4.52	66% 101078-52946 (154024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$121.87	$123.38	+$1.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$42.8	$36.77	-$6.03
pspspsps5	Downavg 52.3¢	$120.43	$139.23	+$18.8	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$68.86	$74.01	+$5.15	55% 9893-8203 (18096)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 59.7¢	$73.26	$72.35	-$0.9	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$64.04	$65.8	+$1.76	59% 11348-7797 (19145)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$36.09	$34.26	-$1.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$27.95	$31.54	+$3.59
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$59.37	$65.34	+$5.97	52% 10477-9488 (19965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$37.95	$45.29	+$7.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$21.42	$20.05	-$1.38
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$52.77	$50.59	-$2.18	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$34.63	$37.12	+$2.49	55% 15008-12442 (27450)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 50¢	$17.02	$20.6	+$3.57	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$14.97	$15.45	+$0.48	54% 16612-14048 (30660)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$12.69	$11.63	-$1.06	58% 63404-46606 (110010)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$9.11	$7.77	-$1.34	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$5.85	$5.95	+$0.1	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 55¢	$5.43	$5.11	-$0.32	52% 10594-9935 (20529)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$429.02

Value

$415.67

PnL

-$13.35

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$164.68

Value

$160.16

PnL

-$4.52

Record

66%

101078-52946 (154024)

Both legs:

Down$121.8759.8¢+$1.51

Up$42.846¢-$6.03

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$120.43

Value

$139.23

PnL

+$18.8

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$68.86

Value

$74.01

PnL

+$5.15

Record

55%

9893-8203 (18096)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$73.26

Value

$72.35

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$64.04

Value

$65.8

PnL

+$1.76

Record

59%

11348-7797 (19145)

Both legs:

Up$36.0942.7¢-$1.83

Down$27.9552.7¢+$3.59

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$59.37

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$5.97

Record

52%

10477-9488 (19965)

Both legs:

Down$37.9550.7¢+$7.35

Up$21.4242.2¢-$1.38

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$52.77

Value

$50.59

PnL

-$2.18

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$34.63

Value

$37.12

PnL

+$2.49

Record

55%

15008-12442 (27450)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$17.02

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$3.57

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

dangerously-skip-permissions<$100

Down

Invested

$14.97

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

16612-14048 (30660)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.69

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$1.06

Record

58%

63404-46606 (110010)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$9.11

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$1.34

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

10594-9935 (20529)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 58%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.