Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

23 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Down (62%) · Down at 100¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 37 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares19,696

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Up14 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,862

Combined PnL-$778.47

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 70.3¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$998.07	58% 39817-28803 (68620)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 32.4¢	$1.6K	$2.9K	+$1.3K	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$493.98	75% 273-92 (365)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 69.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$145.94	53% 601-535 (1136)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 33.7¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$497.05	55% 9859-8170 (18029)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$9.13	89% 29392-3557 (32949)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$169.66	56% 15960-12579 (28539)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$977.77	$1.2K	+$208.21	54% 16581-14014 (30595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$409.95	$897.75	+$487.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$567.82	$288.23	-$279.59
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 32.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$106.64	56% 77437-59824 (137261)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$785.12	$798.44	+$13.32	51% 12116-11612 (23728)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$313.37	$536.14	+$222.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$471.75	$262.3	-$209.46
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 55.6¢	$539.81	$568.19	+$28.38	55% 14965-12421 (27386)
BossgirlCTR	Upavg 71¢	$601.02	$464.25	-$136.77	54% 4766-4011 (8777)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 46.2¢	$338.21	$371.53	+$33.32	55% 52363-42830 (95193)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$404.93	$355.98	-$48.95	52% 21114-19277 (40391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$111.09	$205.46	+$94.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$293.84	$150.52	-$143.32
BO bosona	Downavg 47.8¢	$338.74	$355.41	+$16.67	55% 51712-42162 (93874)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$295.94	$340.17	+$44.23	66% 101039-52919 (153958)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$99.33	$241.72	+$142.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.9¢	$196.61	$98.45	-$98.16
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$239.74	$332.32	+$92.58	48% 6593-7284 (13877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.3¢	$93.04	$231.92	+$138.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$146.7	$100.41	-$46.3
AL almachCTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$283.01	$332	+$48.98	55% 50161-41770 (91931)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$289.77	$327.65	+$37.88	45% 40136-48079 (88215)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.9¢	$142	$210.41	+$68.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.2¢	$147.77	$117.24	-$30.53
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 30.8¢	$104.08	$319.53	+$215.46	65% 114604-61650 (176254)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 53.2¢	$467.2	$316.98	-$150.22	54% 13685-11689 (25374)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 48.8¢	$360.42	$287.88	-$72.53	59% 11299-7760 (19059)
NO notfairplay	Downavg 31¢	$418.53	$262.99	-$155.54	33% 224-461 (685)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 66.2¢	$368.3	$235.39	-$132.91	64% 4956-2802 (7758)
ST stepahead	Downavg 47.3¢	$138.72	$158.62	+$19.9	54% 10144-8498 (18642)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,398.79

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$998.07

Record

58%

39817-28803 (68620)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,625.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$3,151.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$493.98

Record

75%

273-92 (365)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$2,373.22

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$145.94

Record

53%

601-535 (1136)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$1,447.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$497.05

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,817.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$9.13

Record

89%

29392-3557 (32949)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,021.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$169.66

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$977.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$208.21

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

Both legs:

Down$409.9532.2¢+$487.8

Up$567.8258.1¢-$279.59

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,215.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$106.64

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$785.12

Value

$798.44

PnL

+$13.32

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

Both legs:

Down$313.3741.2¢+$222.78

Up$471.7553.1¢-$209.46

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$539.81

Value

$568.19

PnL

+$28.38

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

BossgirlCTR

Invested

$601.02

Value

$464.25

PnL

-$136.77

Record

54%

4766-4011 (8777)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$338.21

Value

$371.53

PnL

+$33.32

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$404.93

Value

$355.98

PnL

-$48.95

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

Both legs:

Down$111.0938.1¢+$94.37

Up$293.8457.6¢-$143.32

bosona

Down

Invested

$338.74

Value

$355.41

PnL

+$16.67

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$295.94

Value

$340.17

PnL

+$44.23

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

Both legs:

Down$99.3329¢+$142.38

Up$196.6158.9¢-$98.16

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$239.74

Value

$332.32

PnL

+$92.58

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

Both legs:

Down$93.0422.3¢+$138.88

Up$146.765¢-$46.3

almachCTR

Invested

$283.01

Value

$332

PnL

+$48.98

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$289.77

Value

$327.65

PnL

+$37.88

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

Both legs:

Down$14222.9¢+$68.41

Up$147.7783.2¢-$30.53

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$104.08

Value

$319.53

PnL

+$215.46

Record

65%

114604-61650 (176254)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$467.2

Value

$316.98

PnL

-$150.22

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$360.42

Value

$287.88

PnL

-$72.53

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

notfairplay

Down

Invested

$418.53

Value

$262.99

PnL

-$155.54

Record

33%

224-461 (685)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$368.3

Value

$235.39

PnL

-$132.91

Record

64%

4956-2802 (7758)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$138.72

Value

$158.62

PnL

+$19.9

Record

54%

10144-8498 (18642)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 37 top traders (62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.