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PolyConsensus
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

33 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

37

Down 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$26.54

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 99.5¢

+19% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

  • Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
  • Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

33 of 37 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down33 traders
Total Value$7.8K
Total Shares8,147
Combined PnL-$29.02
Up4 traders
Total Value$85.81
Total Shares275
Combined PnL+$2.48
Down — 89%Up — 11%
BoneOhio
Down

Invested

$1,644.02

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$59.23

Record

74%

105089-37085 (142174)

10
1000monkeys
Down

Invested

$698.65

Value

$726.58

PnL

+$27.93

Record

59%

11299-7760 (19059)

BO
Bonereaper
Down

Invested

$503.56

Value

$496.52

PnL

-$7.04

Record

66%

101039-52919 (153958)

machinelearned
Down

Invested

$469.9

Value

$476.13

PnL

+$6.24

Record

55%

9859-8170 (18029)

pspspsps5
Down

Invested

$433.11

Value

$386.71

PnL

-$46.4

Record

45%

40136-48079 (88215)

PL
ply-pm0
Down

Invested

$307.97

Value

$328.13

PnL

+$20.17

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

DA
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down

Invested

$370.71

Value

$323.25

PnL

-$47.46

Record

54%

16581-14014 (30595)

HS
Hsilverbasher
Down

Invested

$284

Value

$308.8

PnL

+$24.8

Record

12%

18918-134175 (153093)

CR
CrouchPredictions
Down

Invested

$265.82

Value

$271.1

PnL

+$5.28

Record

56%

15960-12579 (28539)

AS
asdcaxz
Down

Invested

$239.33

Value

$229.6

PnL

-$9.73

Record

48%

6593-7284 (13877)

GO
GoodFallen
Down

Invested

$233.54

Value

$211.82

PnL

-$21.72

Record

55%

14965-12421 (27386)

BL
blue.birds
Down

Invested

$236.79

Value

$208.95

PnL

-$27.83

Record

51%

12116-11612 (23728)

AL
almach
Down

Invested

$147.44

Value

$185.99

PnL

+$38.55

Record

55%

50161-41770 (91931)

AS
asdaefef
Down

Invested

$174.61

Value

$179.18

PnL

+$4.57

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

BO
bosona
Down

Invested

$139.99

Value

$177.28

PnL

+$37.29

Record

55%

51712-42162 (93874)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down

Invested

$164.38

Value

$166.5

PnL

+$2.12

Record

58%

63329-46540 (109869)

MayorMamdani
Down

Invested

$162.16

Value

$163.97

PnL

+$1.81

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

MO
mo-money
Down

Invested

$126.16

Value

$158.58

PnL

+$32.42

Record

55%

52363-42830 (95193)

13
13897651
Down

Invested

$157

Value

$148.53

PnL

-$8.47

Record

56%

8820-6894 (15714)

G-Penis-Monster
Down

Invested

$148.72

Value

$136.55

PnL

-$12.17

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

0X
0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658
Down

Invested

$112.27

Value

$115.91

PnL

+$3.64

Record

52%

10562-9905 (20467)

x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down

Invested

$104.04

Value

$112.52

PnL

+$8.48

Record

52%

21114-19277 (40391)

FairValueMachine
Down

Invested

$103.95

Value

$107.57

PnL

+$3.62

Record

54%

13685-11689 (25374)

UN
uninformedfloww
Down

Invested

$116.65

Value

$103.65

PnL

-$13

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

PA
Papeasy<$100
Down

Invested

$80.66

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$19.09

Record

49%

4190-4292 (8482)

Chat

EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0xd7b477c4...c7db2e
Slug
btc-updown-5m-1794022500

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $1.6K

-$59.23
10

1000monkeys

Down — $726.58

+$27.93
BO

Bonereaper

Down — $496.52

-$7.04

machinelearned

Down — $476.13

+$6.24

pspspsps5

Down — $386.71

-$46.4
PL

ply-pm0

Down — $328.13

+$20.17
DA

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $323.25

-$47.46
HS

Hsilverbasher

Down — $308.8

+$24.8
CR

CrouchPredictions

Down — $271.1

+$5.28
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $229.6

-$9.73
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