Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (57%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Up43¢Down57¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$60.36

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up43%

Down57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$704.74

Total Shares1,371

Combined PnL+$74.11

Down5 traders

Total Value$211.37

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$13.76

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$511	$534.4	+$23.4	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$248.58	$267.52	+$18.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$262.42	$266.89	+$4.46
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$376.25	$407.4	+$31.15	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$288.21	$320.8	+$32.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$88.04	$86.59	-$1.44
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 45.9¢	$150.53	$165.54	+$15.01	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 49.2¢	$132.5	$134.8	+$2.3	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 36.3¢	$91.4	$127.32	+$35.92	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$105.01	$111.45	+$6.44	52% 10553-9896 (20449)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.7¢	$66.36	$70.29	+$3.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$38.65	$41.16	+$2.51
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$80.58	$84.75	+$4.17	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$80.47	$78.02	-$2.45	54% 10136-8487 (18623)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 58¢	$77.64	$66.27	-$11.37	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$40.8	$43.6	+$2.8	12% 18915-134167 (153082)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$26.04	$31.31	+$5.27	55% 52350-42822 (95172)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$26.04	$31.31	+$5.27	55% 51695-42149 (93844)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$26.04	$31.31	+$5.27	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$29.05	$27.3	-$1.75	61% 46098-29272 (75370)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$18.5	$25.25	+$6.75	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$24.5	$21.62	-$2.89	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$20.76	$18.2	-$2.56	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 57¢	$17.1	$14.85	-$2.25	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$11.4	$12.13	+$0.73	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$2.39	$2.53	+$0.14	56% 8800-6875 (15675)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$511

Value

$534.4

PnL

+$23.4

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

Both legs:

Down$248.5853.4¢+$18.94

Up$262.4241.8¢+$4.46

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$376.25

Value

$407.4

PnL

+$31.15

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

Both legs:

Up$288.2145.4¢+$32.59

Down$88.0450.3¢-$1.44

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$150.53

Value

$165.54

PnL

+$15.01

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$132.5

Value

$134.8

PnL

+$2.3

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$91.4

Value

$127.32

PnL

+$35.92

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.01

Value

$111.45

PnL

+$6.44

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

Both legs:

Down$66.3646.7¢+$3.93

Up$38.6547.4¢+$2.51

dangerously-skip-permissions<$100

Down

Invested

$80.58

Value

$84.75

PnL

+$4.17

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$80.47

Value

$78.02

PnL

-$2.45

Record

54%

10136-8487 (18623)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$77.64

Value

$66.27

PnL

-$11.37

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$2.8

Record

12%

18915-134167 (153082)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$26.04

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$5.27

Record

55%

52350-42822 (95172)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$26.04

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$5.27

Record

55%

51695-42149 (93844)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$26.04

Value

$31.31

PnL

+$5.27

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$29.05

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$1.75

Record

61%

46098-29272 (75370)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$6.75

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$21.62

PnL

-$2.89

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.76

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$2.56

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$2.25

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.73

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

8800-6875 (15675)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.