Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

22 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (76%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$15.26

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 99.5¢

+25% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,643

Combined PnL+$45.78

Down7 traders

Total Value$151.06

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$61.05

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.7¢	$395.71	$408.9	+$13.19	50% 6373-6381 (12754)
pspspsps5	Upavg 73.3¢	$252.91	$323.85	+$70.94	46% 40118-48047 (88165)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 73.6¢	$273.91	$308.75	+$34.84	66% 101027-52913 (153940)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 76.4¢	$241.89	$245.85	+$3.96	54% 16571-14006 (30577)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 92.8¢	$288.96	$238.36	-$50.59	56% 15898-12511 (28409)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 84.3¢	$247.74	$233.68	-$14.06	47% 6557-7261 (13818)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 74.4¢	$198.87	$168.35	-$30.51	59% 11289-7746 (19035)
BoneOhio	Upavg 88.7¢	$133.11	$117.75	-$15.36	74% 105078-37083 (142161)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$66.59	$77.86	+$11.26	63% 42447-25170 (67617)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 96¢	$72.24	$72.16	-$0.08	49% 4183-4283 (8466)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 50.9¢	$101.11	$68.47	-$32.64	55% 9852-8159 (18011)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$51.22	$60.15	+$8.93	55% 14950-12418 (27368)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 83¢	$41.51	$44.75	+$3.24	65% 130293-70158 (200451)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 79.1¢	$31.61	$39.79	+$8.18	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 73.5¢	$37.8	$38.81	+$1.01	49% 80989-84429 (165418)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 88.7¢	$36.3	$32.11	-$4.19	57% 9923-7422 (17345)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$27.33	$27.15	-$0.18	58% 63311-46525 (109836)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$24	$24.75	+$0.75	53% 10442-9444 (19886)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$21.77	$22.72	+$0.95	51% 12098-11574 (23672)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 65¢	$13.13	$20.1	+$6.97	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 89.7¢	$19.95	$19.91	-$0.04	61% 98614-62609 (161223)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$19.08	$18.13	-$0.95	56% 60559-47106 (107665)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$19.44	$17.69	-$1.75	54% 4760-4011 (8771)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Downavg 20.5¢	$18.93	$17.5	-$1.43	52% 21108-19265 (40373)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$16.96	$17.13	+$0.17	52% 10553-9896 (20449)

ply-pm0

Invested

$395.71

Value

$408.9

PnL

+$13.19

Record

50%

6373-6381 (12754)

pspspsps5

Invested

$252.91

Value

$323.85

PnL

+$70.94

Record

46%

40118-48047 (88165)

Bonereaper

Invested

$273.91

Value

$308.75

PnL

+$34.84

Record

66%

101027-52913 (153940)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$241.89

Value

$245.85

PnL

+$3.96

Record

54%

16571-14006 (30577)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$288.96

Value

$238.36

PnL

-$50.59

Record

56%

15898-12511 (28409)

asdcaxz

Invested

$247.74

Value

$233.68

PnL

-$14.06

Record

47%

6557-7261 (13818)

1000monkeys

Invested

$198.87

Value

$168.35

PnL

-$30.51

Record

59%

11289-7746 (19035)

BoneOhio

Invested

$133.11

Value

$117.75

PnL

-$15.36

Record

74%

105078-37083 (142161)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$66.59

Value

$77.86

PnL

+$11.26

Record

63%

42447-25170 (67617)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$72.24

Value

$72.16

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

4183-4283 (8466)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$101.11

Value

$68.47

PnL

-$32.64

Record

55%

9852-8159 (18011)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$51.22

Value

$60.15

PnL

+$8.93

Record

55%

14950-12418 (27368)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$41.51

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$3.24

Record

65%

130293-70158 (200451)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31.61

Value

$39.79

PnL

+$8.18

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$37.8

Value

$38.81

PnL

+$1.01

Record

49%

80989-84429 (165418)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$36.3

Value

$32.11

PnL

-$4.19

Record

57%

9923-7422 (17345)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$27.33

Value

$27.15

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

63311-46525 (109836)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

10442-9444 (19886)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$21.77

Value

$22.72

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

12098-11574 (23672)

almach<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$6.97

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

98614-62609 (161223)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$0.95

Record

56%

60559-47106 (107665)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.44

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$1.75

Record

54%

4760-4011 (8771)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.93

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$1.43

Record

52%

21108-19265 (40373)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.96

Value

$17.13

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

10553-9896 (20449)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.