Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

26 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Up (76%) · Up at 94¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Up94¢Down6¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$19.27

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 93.5¢

+23% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 34 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up94%

Down7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,043

Combined PnL-$21.87

Down8 traders

Total Value$229.2

Total Shares625

Combined PnL+$2.6

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 91.3¢	$803.15	$656.64	-$146.52	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$784.15	$626.66	-$157.49	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$368.99	$316.5	-$52.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$415.17	$310.16	-$105.01
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61.7¢	$422.23	$482.06	+$59.83	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95¢	$399.01	$380.11	-$18.9	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
BO bosona	Upavg 94.2¢	$278.94	$268.06	-$10.88	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 69.9¢	$212.69	$249.6	+$36.91	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
machinelearned	Upavg 71.5¢	$219.43	$248.9	+$29.47	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 75.7¢	$210.17	$202.6	-$7.57	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 68.7¢	$184.59	$197.65	+$13.05	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 52.1¢	$180.64	$181.23	+$0.59	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 68.9¢	$136.63	$121.2	-$15.43	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 59.4¢	$99.13	$120.94	+$21.81	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
pspspsps5	Upavg 39.7¢	$61.53	$119.46	+$57.93	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 73.5¢	$108	$87.81	-$20.19	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$86.42	$84.8	-$1.12	61% 98591-62582 (161173)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 25.6¢	$64.37	$77.98	+$13.62	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$75.4	$66.31	-$9.09	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 73.7¢	$65.63	$60.58	-$5.05	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$58.23	$53.51	-$4.72	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$42	$51.08	+$9.08	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$48.75	$50.9	+$2.15	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$42.11	$44.69	+$2.59	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$33.13	$34.18	+$1.05	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$26.97	$33.25	+$6.28	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$33.51	$32.64	-$0.87	56% 8793-6866 (15659)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$803.15

Value

$656.64

PnL

-$146.52

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$784.15

Value

$626.66

PnL

-$157.49

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

Both legs:

Up$368.9961.2¢-$52.48

Down$415.1763.6¢-$105.01

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$422.23

Value

$482.06

PnL

+$59.83

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

mo-money

Invested

$399.01

Value

$380.11

PnL

-$18.9

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

bosona

Invested

$278.94

Value

$268.06

PnL

-$10.88

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

Bonereaper

Invested

$212.69

Value

$249.6

PnL

+$36.91

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

machinelearned

Invested

$219.43

Value

$248.9

PnL

+$29.47

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

asdcaxz

Invested

$210.17

Value

$202.6

PnL

-$7.57

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$184.59

Value

$197.65

PnL

+$13.05

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

1000monkeys

Invested

$180.64

Value

$181.23

PnL

+$0.59

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

GoodFallen

Invested

$136.63

Value

$121.2

PnL

-$15.43

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$99.13

Value

$120.94

PnL

+$21.81

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

pspspsps5

Invested

$61.53

Value

$119.46

PnL

+$57.93

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$108

Value

$87.81

PnL

-$20.19

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$86.42

Value

$84.8

PnL

-$1.12

Record

61%

98591-62582 (161173)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.37

Value

$77.98

PnL

+$13.62

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$75.4

Value

$66.31

PnL

-$9.09

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$65.63

Value

$60.58

PnL

-$5.05

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$58.23

Value

$53.51

PnL

-$4.72

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42

Value

$51.08

PnL

+$9.08

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$2.15

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$42.11

Value

$44.69

PnL

+$2.59

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$33.13

Value

$34.18

PnL

+$1.05

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.97

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$6.28

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.51

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$0.87

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 34 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.