Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 35%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

$-12.2K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 38 top traders (37%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,281

Combined PnL$-13.8K

Down24 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares15,123

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Up — 37%Down — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
76 76marshCTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$4.6K	—	$-4.6K	— 0-9 (9)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 56.7¢	$4.5K	—	$-4.5K	53% 590-526 (1116)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 59.3¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$131.46	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
Atomforge	Downavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$113.39	64% 4931-2790 (7721)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 49¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K	54% 16556-13980 (30536)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$104.9	55% 14924-12403 (27327)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$47.13	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 47.7¢	$924.49	$1.2K	+$230.23	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
NIULAI4	Downavg 57.6¢	$866.59	$1.1K	+$211.08	75% 9870-3291 (13161)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 54.1¢	$860.84	—	-$860.84	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 46.2¢	$998.58	—	-$998.58	55% 9821-8147 (17968)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 57.7¢	$882.46	$776.02	-$106.44	53% 10420-9427 (19847)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 41.7¢	$540.31	$753.58	+$213.27	54% 13637-11679 (25316)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$953.68	$1.2K	+$266.8	66% 101009-52902 (153911)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$316.9	—	-$316.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$636.78	$1.2K	+$583.7
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$544.4	$399.99	-$144.4	51% 17650-17049 (34699)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$382.4	—	-$382.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$162	$399.99	+$238
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 48.2¢	$595.04	$721.18	+$126.14	52% 10531-9879 (20410)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$611.81	$576.43	-$35.38	52% 21086-19246 (40332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$318.84	—	-$318.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$292.97	$576.43	+$283.46
MO mo-money	Downavg 53.9¢	$476.6	$625.25	+$148.65	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
BO bosona	Downavg 55.5¢	$348.32	$525.01	+$176.68	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.5¢	$488.34	$463.6	-$24.74	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.6¢	$423.5	$443.78	+$20.28	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
AL almach	Downavg 54.4¢	$228.21	$399.15	+$170.93	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 48.3¢	$312.23	$385.57	+$73.34	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$126.02	—	-$126.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$186.22	$385.57	+$199.35
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 46.8¢	$215.3	—	-$215.3	45% 40054-47988 (88042)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 59.2¢	$181.05	—	-$181.05	63% 42413-25111 (67524)

76marshCTR

Invested

$4,579.06

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

—

0-9 (9)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$4,545.82

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$2,401.77

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$131.46

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$2,544.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$113.39

Record

64%

4931-2790 (7721)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,980.67

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

16556-13980 (30536)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$1,092.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$104.9

Record

55%

14924-12403 (27327)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$1,237.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.13

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$924.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$230.23

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$866.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$211.08

Record

75%

9870-3291 (13161)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$860.84

Value

—

PnL

-$860.84

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$998.58

Value

—

PnL

-$998.58

Record

55%

9821-8147 (17968)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$882.46

Value

$776.02

PnL

-$106.44

Record

53%

10420-9427 (19847)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$540.31

Value

$753.58

PnL

+$213.27

Record

54%

13637-11679 (25316)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$953.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$266.8

Record

66%

101009-52902 (153911)

Both legs:

Up$316.953.8¢-$316.9

Down$636.7852.2¢+$583.7

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$544.4

Value

$399.99

PnL

-$144.4

Record

51%

17650-17049 (34699)

Both legs:

Up$382.443.2¢-$382.4

Down$16240.5¢+$238

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$595.04

Value

$721.18

PnL

+$126.14

Record

52%

10531-9879 (20410)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$611.81

Value

$576.43

PnL

-$35.38

Record

52%

21086-19246 (40332)

Both legs:

Up$318.8446.9¢-$318.84

Down$292.9750.8¢+$283.46

mo-money

Down

Invested

$476.6

Value

$625.25

PnL

+$148.65

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

bosona

Down

Invested

$348.32

Value

$525.01

PnL

+$176.68

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$488.34

Value

$463.6

PnL

-$24.74

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$423.5

Value

$443.78

PnL

+$20.28

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

almach

Down

Invested

$228.21

Value

$399.15

PnL

+$170.93

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$312.23

Value

$385.57

PnL

+$73.34

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Up$126.0239¢-$126.02

Down$186.2248.3¢+$199.35

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$215.3

Value

—

PnL

-$215.3

Record

45%

40054-47988 (88042)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$181.05

Value

—

PnL

-$181.05

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 38 top traders (37%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x03754ce9...f41930

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794000000

Traders in this Market

76marsh

Up — $0

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $2.5K

+$131.46

Atomforge

Down — $2.4K

-$113.39

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.0K

GoodFallen

Down — $1.2K

+$104.9

1000monkeys

Down — $1.2K

-$47.13

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$230.23

NIULAI4

Down — $1.1K

blue.birds

Up — $0