Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
43
Down 73%
2 arb excluded
$35.6K
$7.4K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 43 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 76marsh | Downavg 68.1¢ | $12.4K | $18.3K | +$5.8K | — 0-9 (9) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 62.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$2.7K | 64% 4928-2789 (7717) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.24 | 56% 30385-23643 (54028) |
AL almach | Downavg 72¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$289.2 | 55% 50158-41764 (91922) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$64.22 | 56% 15897-12509 (28406) |
BO bosona | Downavg 71.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$221.83 | 55% 51582-41991 (93573) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71.7¢ | $1.1K | $915.62 | -$147.67 | 55% 52205-42636 (94841) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.6¢ | $873 | $894.84 | +$21.83 | 66% 101003-52901 (153904) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $1.0K | $851.95 | -$155.84 | 50% 6263-6235 (12498) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.4¢ | $813.96 | $800.31 | -$13.65 | 51% 12016-11488 (23504) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 71.8¢ | $773.15 | $665.69 | -$107.46 | 55% 9813-8139 (17952) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 69¢ | $656.4 | $599.99 | -$56.41 | 51% 17644-17047 (34691) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 68.1¢ | $662.83 | $594 | -$29.63 | 63% 60872-35320 (96192) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 59.3¢ | $538.32 | $577.57 | +$616.83 | 52% 2139-1962 (4101) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $528.66 | $534 | +$5.34 | 89% 29224-3554 (32778) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $576.37 | $537.11 | -$39.26 | 52% 10524-9872 (20396) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.2¢ | $376.95 | $537.11 | +$160.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.6¢ | $199.42 | — | -$199.42 | |
10 1000monkeys | Downavg 69.5¢ | $554.76 | $512.43 | -$42.33 | 59% 11247-7714 (18961) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 62.2¢ | $537.83 | $444.82 | -$93.01 | 54% 16550-13972 (30522) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $394.9 | $313.11 | -$81.79 | 45% 40037-47965 (88002) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $245.05 | $338 | +$92.95 | 53% 10413-9421 (19834) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57.8¢ | $235.6 | $242.5 | +$6.9 | 55% 14916-12398 (27314) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 77.3¢ | $163.57 | $146.11 | -$17.46 | 47% 6472-7172 (13644) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 76.1¢ | $145.85 | $143 | -$2.85 | 55% 51621-42810 (94431) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 70.3¢ | $152.09 | $139.99 | -$12.11 | 52% 21080-19238 (40318) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.8¢ | $132.24 | $162.55 | +$30.31 | 57% 9900-7412 (17312) |
Invested
$12,427.26
Value
$18.3K
PnL
+$5.8K
Record
—
0-9 (9)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,638.26
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
64%
4928-2789 (7717)
Invested
$1,410.05
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.24
Record
56%
30385-23643 (54028)
Invested
$1,529.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$289.2
Record
55%
50158-41764 (91922)
Invested
$1,265.89
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$64.22
Record
56%
15897-12509 (28406)
Invested
$1,294.11
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$221.83
Record
55%
51582-41991 (93573)
Invested
$1,063.29
Value
$915.62
PnL
-$147.67
Record
55%
52205-42636 (94841)
Invested
$873
Value
$894.84
PnL
+$21.83
Record
66%
101003-52901 (153904)
Invested
$1,007.79
Value
$851.95
PnL
-$155.84
Record
50%
6263-6235 (12498)
Invested
$813.96
Value
$800.31
PnL
-$13.65
Record
51%
12016-11488 (23504)
machinelearnedInvested
$773.15
Value
$665.69
PnL
-$107.46
Record
55%
9813-8139 (17952)
Invested
$656.4
Value
$599.99
PnL
-$56.41
Record
51%
17644-17047 (34691)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$662.83
Value
$594
PnL
-$29.63
Record
63%
60872-35320 (96192)
Invested
$538.32
Value
$577.57
PnL
+$616.83
Record
52%
2139-1962 (4101)
Invested
$528.66
Value
$534
PnL
+$5.34
Record
89%
29224-3554 (32778)
Invested
$576.37
Value
$537.11
PnL
-$39.26
Record
52%
10524-9872 (20396)
Both legs:
Invested
$554.76
Value
$512.43
PnL
-$42.33
Record
59%
11247-7714 (18961)
Invested
$537.83
Value
$444.82
PnL
-$93.01
Record
54%
16550-13972 (30522)
pspspsps5Invested
$394.9
Value
$313.11
PnL
-$81.79
Record
45%
40037-47965 (88002)
Invested
$245.05
Value
$338
PnL
+$92.95
Record
53%
10413-9421 (19834)
Invested
$235.6
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$6.9
Record
55%
14916-12398 (27314)
Invested
$163.57
Value
$146.11
PnL
-$17.46
Record
47%
6472-7172 (13644)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$145.85
Value
$143
PnL
-$2.85
Record
55%
51621-42810 (94431)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$152.09
Value
$139.99
PnL
-$12.11
Record
52%
21080-19238 (40318)
Invested
$132.24
Value
$162.55
PnL
+$30.31
Record
57%
9900-7412 (17312)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
76marsh
Down — $18.3K
Atomforge
Down — $2.7K
THG.
Down — $1.4K
almach
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
bosona
Down — $1.1K
mo-money
Down — $915.62
Bonereaper
Down — $894.84
ply-pm0
Down — $851.95
blue.birds
Down — $800.31