Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 35 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,522

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares900

Combined PnL-$394.31

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$35.76	56% 30376-23643 (54019)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 65¢	$872.94	$1.0K	+$150.51	54% 16542-13961 (30503)
MO mo-money	Downavg 58.4¢	$455.42	$780.06	+$324.63	55% 52204-42636 (94840)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 68.3¢	$629.31	$686.67	+$57.36	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
AL almach	Downavg 43¢	$215	$500	+$285	55% 50153-41761 (91914)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$477.73	$446.06	-$31.67	59% 11231-7705 (18936)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$268.77	$446.06	+$177.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$208.95	—	-$208.95
BO bosona	Downavg 43.7¢	$225.24	$516	+$290.76	55% 51580-41990 (93570)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 58.3¢	$371.17	$430.33	+$59.16	56% 15897-12507 (28404)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 66.6¢	$331.27	$404.87	+$508.47	55% 14903-12392 (27295)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.9¢	$341.78	$372.81	+$31.03	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
pspspsps5	Downavg 71.4¢	$234.73	$290.2	+$55.46	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 76.6¢	$304.86	$279.31	-$25.55	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
machinelearned	Downavg 54.1¢	$205.5	$379.55	+$174.05	55% 9805-8128 (17933)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 61¢	$154.15	$249.31	+$95.15	51% 17640-17042 (34682)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 92.9¢	$180.77	$194.6	+$13.82	58% 63200-46432 (109632)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 49¢	$131.99	$169	+$37.01	52% 10518-9861 (20379)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 60.2¢	$184.74	—	-$184.74	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.5¢	$97.77	$108.55	+$10.78	63% 60809-35275 (96084)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 88¢	$107.84	$90	-$17.85	52% 21072-19227 (40299)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$73.04	$87.83	+$14.79	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$74.12	$85.88	+$19.77	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 75.9¢	$77.25	$101.82	+$24.57	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$50.24	$64.65	+$14.41	55% 51597-42791 (94388)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 76¢	$48.38	$45	-$3.38	54% 10440-8797 (19237)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$45	—	-$45	49% 4140-4255 (8395)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,540.05

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$35.76

Record

56%

30376-23643 (54019)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$872.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$150.51

Record

54%

16542-13961 (30503)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$455.42

Value

$780.06

PnL

+$324.63

Record

55%

52204-42636 (94840)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$629.31

Value

$686.67

PnL

+$57.36

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

almach

Down

Invested

$215

Value

$500

PnL

+$285

Record

55%

50153-41761 (91914)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$477.73

Value

$446.06

PnL

-$31.67

Record

59%

11231-7705 (18936)

Both legs:

Down$268.7760.3¢+$177.28

Up$208.9541¢-$208.95

bosona

Down

Invested

$225.24

Value

$516

PnL

+$290.76

Record

55%

51580-41990 (93570)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$371.17

Value

$430.33

PnL

+$59.16

Record

56%

15897-12507 (28404)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$331.27

Value

$404.87

PnL

+$508.47

Record

55%

14903-12392 (27295)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$341.78

Value

$372.81

PnL

+$31.03

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$234.73

Value

$290.2

PnL

+$55.46

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$304.86

Value

$279.31

PnL

-$25.55

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$205.5

Value

$379.55

PnL

+$174.05

Record

55%

9805-8128 (17933)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$154.15

Value

$249.31

PnL

+$95.15

Record

51%

17640-17042 (34682)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$180.77

Value

$194.6

PnL

+$13.82

Record

58%

63200-46432 (109632)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$131.99

Value

$169

PnL

+$37.01

Record

52%

10518-9861 (20379)

13897651CTR

Invested

$184.74

Value

—

PnL

-$184.74

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$97.77

Value

$108.55

PnL

+$10.78

Record

63%

60809-35275 (96084)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$107.84

Value

$90

PnL

-$17.85

Record

52%

21072-19227 (40299)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$73.04

Value

$87.83

PnL

+$14.79

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$74.12

Value

$85.88

PnL

+$19.77

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$77.25

Value

$101.82

PnL

+$24.57

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$50.24

Value

$64.65

PnL

+$14.41

Record

55%

51597-42791 (94388)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$48.38

Value

$45

PnL

-$3.38

Record

54%

10440-8797 (19237)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$45

Value

—

PnL

-$45

Record

49%

4140-4255 (8395)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 35 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa4bfb8dc...1fa5b8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793992500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.6K

+$35.76

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.0K

+$150.51

mo-money

Down — $780.06

+$324.63

blue.birds

Down — $686.67

+$57.36

almach

Down — $500

+$285

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$31.67

bosona

Down — $516

+$290.76

CrouchPredictions

Down — $430.33

+$59.16

GoodFallen

Down — $404.87

+$508.47

ply-pm0

Down — $372.81

+$31.03

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