Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$670.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,157

Combined PnL+$836.78

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$166.29

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL almach	Downavg 80¢	$800	$1,000	+$200	55% 50153-41761 (91914)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 73.7¢	$918.96	$925.68	+$6.72	56% 15897-12507 (28404)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 79.2¢	$759.28	$741.8	-$17.49	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70.5¢	$721.34	$638.68	-$82.66	54% 16542-13961 (30503)
BO bosona	Downavg 72.5¢	$440.67	$551.87	+$111.2	55% 51580-41990 (93570)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 75.6¢	$516.25	$512.41	-$3.84	55% 14903-12392 (27295)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.3¢	$400.33	$481.39	+$81.06	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 72.4¢	$435.45	$416.6	-$18.85	59% 11231-7705 (18936)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 81.7¢	$365.07	$356.32	-$8.74	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
machinelearned	Downavg 65.7¢	$244.75	$352	+$107.25	55% 9805-8128 (17933)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.3¢	$254.78	$302	+$47.22	63% 60809-35275 (96084)
13 13897651	Downavg 51.5¢	$265.9	$334.1	+$68.21	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 64.2¢	$292.24	$278.99	-$13.24	53% 10405-9413 (19818)
pspspsps5	Downavg 68.7¢	$172.62	$249.63	+$77.01	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.2¢	$216.06	$220.84	+$225.63	54% 13614-11674 (25288)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$158.11	$202.07	+$43.96	52% 21072-19227 (40299)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$140.18	$202.07	+$61.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.1¢	$17.93	—	-$17.93
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 67.9¢	$116.11	$120.75	+$4.64	65% 114511-61547 (176058)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$69.35	$89.59	+$20.25	56% 60462-47011 (107473)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$85.76	$86.71	+$7.33	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79¢	$73.15	$80.16	+$7	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$78.76	$69.26	-$9.5	49% 4140-4255 (8395)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 68.7¢	$68.96	$100.43	+$31.47	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$67.39	$65	-$2.39	58% 63200-46432 (109632)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$61.74	$59.37	-$2.37	61% 46015-29175 (75190)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$58.09	$48.67	+$4.99	61% 98514-62493 (161007)

almach

Down

Invested

$800

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$200

Record

55%

50153-41761 (91914)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$918.96

Value

$925.68

PnL

+$6.72

Record

56%

15897-12507 (28404)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$759.28

Value

$741.8

PnL

-$17.49

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$721.34

Value

$638.68

PnL

-$82.66

Record

54%

16542-13961 (30503)

bosona

Down

Invested

$440.67

Value

$551.87

PnL

+$111.2

Record

55%

51580-41990 (93570)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$516.25

Value

$512.41

PnL

-$3.84

Record

55%

14903-12392 (27295)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$400.33

Value

$481.39

PnL

+$81.06

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$435.45

Value

$416.6

PnL

-$18.85

Record

59%

11231-7705 (18936)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$365.07

Value

$356.32

PnL

-$8.74

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$244.75

Value

$352

PnL

+$107.25

Record

55%

9805-8128 (17933)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$254.78

Value

$302

PnL

+$47.22

Record

63%

60809-35275 (96084)

13897651

Down

Invested

$265.9

Value

$334.1

PnL

+$68.21

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$292.24

Value

$278.99

PnL

-$13.24

Record

53%

10405-9413 (19818)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$172.62

Value

$249.63

PnL

+$77.01

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$216.06

Value

$220.84

PnL

+$225.63

Record

54%

13614-11674 (25288)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158.11

Value

$202.07

PnL

+$43.96

Record

52%

21072-19227 (40299)

Both legs:

Down$140.1869.4¢+$61.89

Up$17.9321.1¢-$17.93

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$116.11

Value

$120.75

PnL

+$4.64

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$69.35

Value

$89.59

PnL

+$20.25

Record

56%

60462-47011 (107473)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$85.76

Value

$86.71

PnL

+$7.33

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$73.15

Value

$80.16

PnL

+$7

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$78.76

Value

$69.26

PnL

-$9.5

Record

49%

4140-4255 (8395)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$68.96

Value

$100.43

PnL

+$31.47

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$67.39

Value

$65

PnL

-$2.39

Record

58%

63200-46432 (109632)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$61.74

Value

$59.37

PnL

-$2.37

Record

61%

46015-29175 (75190)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$58.09

Value

$48.67

PnL

+$4.99

Record

61%

98514-62493 (161007)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 33 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x65e26fa0...a119bd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793991900

Traders in this Market

almach

Down — $1,000

+$200

CrouchPredictions

Down — $925.68

+$6.72

blue.birds

Down — $741.8

-$17.49

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $638.68

-$82.66

bosona

Down — $551.87

+$111.2

GoodFallen

Down — $512.41

-$3.84

ply-pm0

Down — $481.39

+$81.06

1000monkeys

Down — $416.6

-$18.85

asdcaxz

Down — $356.32

-$8.74

machinelearned

Down — $352

+$107.25

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