Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$719.05

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,201

Combined PnL+$393.81

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,806

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$34.36	56% 30376-23643 (54019)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$523.21	$534	+$10.79	89% 29171-3554 (32725)
machinelearned	Downavg 84.7¢	$466.32	$500	+$33.68	55% 9805-8128 (17933)
pspspsps5	Downavg 86.1¢	$439.34	$446.28	+$6.93	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 19.8¢	$349.02	$340.9	-$8.12	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.8¢	$156.12	$340.9	+$184.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$192.9	—	-$192.9
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$351.63	$324.5	-$27.13	54% 16542-13961 (30503)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$152.41	$324.5	+$172.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$199.22	—	-$199.22
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 38.7¢	$330.67	—	-$330.67	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$251.09	$191.59	-$59.5	59% 11231-7705 (18936)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$102.58	$191.59	+$89.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$148.51	—	-$148.51
FairValueMachine	Downavg 62.7¢	$122.63	$195.49	+$72.86	54% 13614-11674 (25288)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 39.5¢	$202.03	—	-$202.03	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 59.2¢	$112.67	$171.34	+$58.67	52% 10518-9861 (20379)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 52.8¢	$144.66	—	-$144.66	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57¢	$122.28	$114.07	-$8.21	67% 102458-50758 (153216)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$93.72	$91.8	+$11.13	61% 98514-62493 (161007)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$91.87	$84.67	+$77.46	55% 14903-12392 (27295)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$65.99	$80.76	+$14.77	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 54.7¢	$65.88	$100.7	+$34.83	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
OhioAI	Downavg 79.2¢	$79.2	$100	+$20.8	54% 10440-8797 (19237)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR	Upavg 63.5¢	$107.12	—	-$107.12	65% 130132-70051 (200183)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$45.95	$66.62	+$20.67	52% 21072-19227 (40299)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$68.22	—	-$68.22	58% 63200-46432 (109632)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$62.56	$31.16	-$31.4	63% 42374-25068 (67442)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$41.44	—	-$41.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.8¢	$21.12	$31.16	+$10.04
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 88.6¢	$37.22	$42	+$4.78	55% 51597-42791 (94388)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 21.7¢	$128.87	—	-$128.87	56% 15897-12507 (28404)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$55.33	—	-$55.33	65% 114511-61547 (176058)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,555.64

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$34.36

Record

56%

30376-23643 (54019)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$523.21

Value

$534

PnL

+$10.79

Record

89%

29171-3554 (32725)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$466.32

Value

$500

PnL

+$33.68

Record

55%

9805-8128 (17933)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$439.34

Value

$446.28

PnL

+$6.93

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$349.02

Value

$340.9

PnL

-$8.12

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

Both legs:

Down$156.1245.8¢+$184.78

Up$192.919.8¢-$192.9

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$351.63

Value

$324.5

PnL

-$27.13

Record

54%

16542-13961 (30503)

Both legs:

Down$152.4147¢+$172.09

Up$199.2243.6¢-$199.22

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$330.67

Value

—

PnL

-$330.67

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$251.09

Value

$191.59

PnL

-$59.5

Record

59%

11231-7705 (18936)

Both legs:

Down$102.5853.5¢+$89.01

Up$148.5158.2¢-$148.51

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$122.63

Value

$195.49

PnL

+$72.86

Record

54%

13614-11674 (25288)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$202.03

Value

—

PnL

-$202.03

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$112.67

Value

$171.34

PnL

+$58.67

Record

52%

10518-9861 (20379)

13897651CTR

Invested

$144.66

Value

—

PnL

-$144.66

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$122.28

Value

$114.07

PnL

-$8.21

Record

67%

102458-50758 (153216)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$93.72

Value

$91.8

PnL

+$11.13

Record

61%

98514-62493 (161007)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$91.87

Value

$84.67

PnL

+$77.46

Record

55%

14903-12392 (27295)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$65.99

Value

$80.76

PnL

+$14.77

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$65.88

Value

$100.7

PnL

+$34.83

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$79.2

Value

$100

PnL

+$20.8

Record

54%

10440-8797 (19237)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR

Invested

$107.12

Value

—

PnL

-$107.12

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$45.95

Value

$66.62

PnL

+$20.67

Record

52%

21072-19227 (40299)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$68.22

Value

—

PnL

-$68.22

Record

58%

63200-46432 (109632)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$62.56

Value

$31.16

PnL

-$31.4

Record

63%

42374-25068 (67442)

Both legs:

Up$41.4456.7¢-$41.44

Down$21.1267.8¢+$10.04

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$37.22

Value

$42

PnL

+$4.78

Record

55%

51597-42791 (94388)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$128.87

Value

—

PnL

-$128.87

Record

56%

15897-12507 (28404)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$55.33

Value

—

PnL

-$55.33

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6ee1bada...fcdc1f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793993100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.6K

+$34.36

hoodquant

Down — $534

+$10.79

machinelearned

Down — $500

+$33.68

pspspsps5

Down — $446.28

+$6.93

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.12

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $0

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $195.49

asdcaxz

Up — $0