Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$104.5

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,912

Combined PnL+$343.26

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares519

Combined PnL-$238.76

Up — 80%Down — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$760.03	$619.95	-$140.08	54% 16542-13961 (30503)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$387.74	$619.95	+$232.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.4¢	$372.29	—	-$372.29
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.1¢	$576.29	$623.82	+$47.53	51% 11991-11459 (23450)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 70.1¢	$546.43	$576.12	+$29.68	56% 15897-12507 (28404)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$343.86	$336.29	-$7.58	50% 6263-6235 (12498)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.5¢	$237	$336.29	+$99.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.5¢	$106.87	—	-$106.87
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 77.1¢	$318.04	$300.85	-$17.19	47% 6449-7132 (13581)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$201.98	$227.79	+$25.81	59% 11231-7705 (18936)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$129.01	$227.79	+$98.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.6¢	$72.97	—	-$72.97
pspspsps5	Upavg 61¢	$138.44	$227.01	+$88.57	45% 40028-47949 (87977)
machinelearned	Upavg 71¢	$115.97	$149.98	+$34.01	55% 9805-8128 (17933)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 74.3¢	$145.06	$112.46	-$32.6	55% 14903-12392 (27295)
AL almach	Upavg 80¢	$82.1	$102.66	+$20.56	55% 50153-41761 (91914)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 75.6¢	$104.27	$90.38	-$13.88	54% 13614-11674 (25288)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$96.19	—	-$96.19	56% 8722-6811 (15533)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$83.02	$80	-$3.02	52% 21072-19227 (40299)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$51.91	$80	+$28.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.2¢	$31.11	—	-$31.11
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 78¢	$70.2	$90	+$19.8	56% 77327-59680 (137007)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$71.5	$71.76	+$0.26	67% 102458-50758 (153216)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 77¢	$52	$67.51	+$15.52	66% 130543-67485 (198028)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$62.4	$93.01	+$30.61	65% 114511-61547 (176058)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 79.6¢	$74.73	$93.88	+$19.15	52% 10518-9861 (20379)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 57.6¢	$58.35	$101.38	+$43.03	49% 80875-84321 (165196)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$66.88	$95	+$28.12	54% 10440-8797 (19237)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$73.25	—	-$73.25	53% 10405-9413 (19818)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$46.55	—	-$46.55	55% 51580-41990 (93570)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$21.01	$33	+$11.99	55% 51597-42791 (94388)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 71¢	$21.29	$29.99	+$8.7	55% 52204-42636 (94840)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$25.72	$28.39	+$2.67	65% 130132-70051 (200183)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$760.03

Value

$619.95

PnL

-$140.08

Record

54%

16542-13961 (30503)

Both legs:

Up$387.7462.5¢+$232.22

Down$372.2934.4¢-$372.29

blue.birds

Invested

$576.29

Value

$623.82

PnL

+$47.53

Record

51%

11991-11459 (23450)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$546.43

Value

$576.12

PnL

+$29.68

Record

56%

15897-12507 (28404)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$343.86

Value

$336.29

PnL

-$7.58

Record

50%

6263-6235 (12498)

Both legs:

Up$23770.5¢+$99.29

Down$106.8724.5¢-$106.87

asdcaxz

Invested

$318.04

Value

$300.85

PnL

-$17.19

Record

47%

6449-7132 (13581)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$201.98

Value

$227.79

PnL

+$25.81

Record

59%

11231-7705 (18936)

Both legs:

Up$129.0156.6¢+$98.78

Down$72.9745.6¢-$72.97

pspspsps5

Invested

$138.44

Value

$227.01

PnL

+$88.57

Record

45%

40028-47949 (87977)

machinelearned

Invested

$115.97

Value

$149.98

PnL

+$34.01

Record

55%

9805-8128 (17933)

GoodFallen

Invested

$145.06

Value

$112.46

PnL

-$32.6

Record

55%

14903-12392 (27295)

almach

Invested

$82.1

Value

$102.66

PnL

+$20.56

Record

55%

50153-41761 (91914)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$104.27

Value

$90.38

PnL

-$13.88

Record

54%

13614-11674 (25288)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$96.19

Value

—

PnL

-$96.19

Record

56%

8722-6811 (15533)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$83.02

Value

$80

PnL

-$3.02

Record

52%

21072-19227 (40299)

Both legs:

Up$51.9164.9¢+$28.09

Down$31.1130.2¢-$31.11

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$70.2

Value

$90

PnL

+$19.8

Record

56%

77327-59680 (137007)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$71.5

Value

$71.76

PnL

+$0.26

Record

67%

102458-50758 (153216)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$52

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$15.52

Record

66%

130543-67485 (198028)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$62.4

Value

$93.01

PnL

+$30.61

Record

65%

114511-61547 (176058)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$74.73

Value

$93.88

PnL

+$19.15

Record

52%

10518-9861 (20379)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$58.35

Value

$101.38

PnL

+$43.03

Record

49%

80875-84321 (165196)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$66.88

Value

$95

PnL

+$28.12

Record

54%

10440-8797 (19237)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.25

Value

—

PnL

-$73.25

Record

53%

10405-9413 (19818)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.55

Value

—

PnL

-$46.55

Record

55%

51580-41990 (93570)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$21.01

Value

$33

PnL

+$11.99

Record

55%

51597-42791 (94388)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$8.7

Record

55%

52204-42636 (94840)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25.72

Value

$28.39

PnL

+$2.67

Record

65%

130132-70051 (200183)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 30 top traders (80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcc6f0fc7...1391f6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793993400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$140.08

blue.birds

Up — $623.82

+$47.53

CrouchPredictions

Up — $576.12

+$29.68

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.58

asdcaxz

Up — $300.85

-$17.19

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$25.81

pspspsps5

Up — $227.01

+$88.57

machinelearned

Up — $149.98

+$34.01

GoodFallen

Up — $112.46

-$32.6

almach

Up — $102.66

+$20.56

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